@Article{ChouDGPARCRSF:2020:TeSeCl,
author = "Chou, Sin Chan and Dereczynski, Claudine and Gomes, Jorge
Lu{\'{\i}}s and Pesquero, Jos{\'e} Fernando and Avila, Ana
Maria H. de and Resende, Nicole Costa and Carvalho, Lu{\'{\i}}s
Felipe Alves de and Ruiz-C{\'a}rdenas, Ramiro and Souza, Carlos
Renato and Fonseca, Josiane Ferreira Bustamante",
affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and
{Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)} and {Instituto
Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de
Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Universidade Estadual de Campinas
(UNICAMP)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}
and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {} and
{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto
Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
title = "Ten-year seasonal climate reforecasts over South America using the
Eta Regional Climate Model",
journal = "Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ci{\^e}ncias",
year = "2020",
volume = "92",
number = "3",
pages = "e20181242",
keywords = ": Seasonal forecasts, Regional Climate Model, Eta model, South
America, forecast skill, added value.",
abstract = "Ten-year seasonal climate reforecasts over South America are
obtained using the Eta Regional Climate Model at 40 km resolution,
driven by the large-scale forcing from the global atmospheric
model of the Center for Weather Forecasts and Climate Studies. The
objective of this work is to evaluate these regional reforecasts.
The dataset is comprised of four-month seasonal forecasts
performed on a monthly basis between 2001 and 2010. An ensemble of
fi ve members is constructed from fi ve slightly different initial
conditions to partially reduce the uncertainty in the seasonal
forecasts. The seasonal mean precipitation and 2-meter temperature
forecasts are compared with the observations. The comparison shows
that, in general, forecasted precipitation is underestimated in
the central part of the continent in the austral summer, whereas
the forecasted 2 meter temperature is underestimated in most parts
of the continent and throughout the year. Skill scores show higher
skill in the northern part of the continent and lower skill in the
southern part of the continent, but mixed skill signs are seen in
the central part of the continent. During the El Niņo and La Niņa
seasons, the forecast skill scores clearly increase. The
downscaling of the Eta model seasonal forecasts provides added
value over the driver global model forecasts, especially during
rainy periods.",
doi = "10.1590/0001-3765202020181242",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0001-3765202020181242",
issn = "0001-3765",
language = "en",
targetfile = "chou_ten.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "25 abr. 2024"
}