@PhDThesis{Guimarães:2021:CoAvIn,
author = "Guimar{\~a}es, Bruno dos Santos",
title = "Previs{\~a}o sub-sazonal com o modelo global atmosf{\'e}rico do
CPTEC/INPE: configura{\c{c}}{\~a}o, avalia{\c{c}}{\~a}o e
investiga{\c{c}}{\~a}o das fontes de previsibilidade para a
Am{\'e}rica do Sul",
school = "Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)",
year = "2021",
address = "S{\~a}o Jos{\'e} dos Campos",
month = "2020-12-14",
keywords = "oscila{\c{c}}{\~a}o de Madden-Julian, BAM-1.2, fontes de
previsibilidade, Madden-Julian oscillation, source of
predictability.",
abstract = "Este estudo teve como objetivo determinar a habilidade preditiva
do modelo atmosf{\'e}rico global do CPTEC (BAM-1.2) na escala
sub-sazonal e investigar as principais fontes de previsibilidade
associadas sobre a Am{\'e}rica do Sul, durante 12 ver{\~o}es
estendidos (novembro mar{\c{c}}o, 1999/2000 2010/2011). Sete
configura{\c{c}}{\~o}es do BAM-1.2 foram avaliadas em termos de
resolu{\c{c}}{\~a}o vertical, parametriza{\c{c}}{\~o}es de
convec{\c{c}}{\~a}o profunda e camada limite planet{\'a}ria, e
inicializa{\c{c}}{\~o}es da componente atmosf{\'e}rica
(condi{\c{c}}{\~a}o inicial) e umidade do solo. Atrav{\'e}s da
avalia{\c{c}}{\~a}o dessas sete configura{\c{c}}{\~o}es foi
poss{\'{\i}}vel determinar a configura{\c{c}}{\~a}o mais
adequada do BAM-1.2 para as previs{\~o}es das anomalias semanais
de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o e temperatura do ar a 2 metros de
altura (T2M) e evolu{\c{c}}{\~a}o di{\'a}ria da
Oscila{\c{c}}{\~a}o de Madden e Julian (OMJ). Com a
configura{\c{c}}{\~a}o do BAM-1.2 determinada, a habilidade
preditiva do modelo do CPTEC, a partir de um conjunto de
previs{\~o}es retrospectivas, composto por 11 membros, foi
avaliada e comparada com a habilidade preditiva dos modelos do
Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Environmental and Climate
Change Canada (ECCC), European Centre for Medium-range Weather
Forecasts (ECMWF) e Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), os
quais participam do projeto internacional Sub-seasoanl-to-Seasonal
(S2S) do programa mundial de pesquisa em tempo e clima da
Organiza{\c{c}}{\~a}o Meteorol{\'o}gica Mundial (OMM). Por
{\'u}ltimo, os modos de variabilidade espa{\c{c}}o-temporal das
anomalias semanais de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o foram determinados.
Tais modos foram associados a fen{\^o}menos
atmosf{\'e}ricos/oce{\^a}nicos para definir as principais fontes
de previsibilidade na escala sub-sazonal sobre a Am{\'e}rica do
Sul durante o ver{\~a}o estendido. Os resultados mostraram que o
BAM-1.2 se mostrou competitivo em rela{\c{c}}{\~a}o aos modelos
do projeto S2S avaliados. Entretanto, os superiores
{\'{\i}}ndices de destreza alcan{\c{c}}ados pelo modelo do
ECMWF indicam que a habilidade preditiva das previs{\~o}es
sub-sazonais do CPTEC pode ser aprimoradas possivelmente com o
incremento na resolu{\c{c}}{\~a}o espacial do BAM- 1.2,
acoplamento com o componente oce{\^a}nico e melhorias nos
esquemas de parametriza{\c{c}}{\~o}es f{\'{\i}}sicas e de
gera{\c{c}}{\~a}o dos membros para inicializa{\c{c}}{\~a}o do
modelo. Com rela{\c{c}}{\~a}o {\`a}s principais fontes de
previsibilidade sobre a Am{\'e}rica do Sul, o padr{\~a}o de
dipolo meridional sobre o leste da Am{\'e}rica do Sul foi
encontrado como sendo o modo de variabilidade
espa{\c{c}}o-temporal dominante. Foi identificado que esse
padr{\~a}o {\'e} fortemente influenciado por
oscila{\c{c}}{\~o}es dentro das escalas de variabilidade
intrassazonal e interanual. Esta constata{\c{c}}{\~a}o indica
que v{\'a}rios fen{\^o}menos influenciam a forma{\c{c}}{\~a}o
do padr{\~a}o de dipolo e, dessa forma, atuam como fontes de
previsibilidade sobre a Am{\'e}rica do Sul [e.g.,
teleconex{\~o}es tr{\'o}pico-extratr{\'o}pico, El-Niņo
Oscila{\c{c}}{\~a}o Sul (ENOS) e OMJ]. Al{\'e}m disso, o
segundo modo de variabilidade espa{\c{c}}o-temporal tamb{\'e}m
mostrou relevante contribui{\c{c}}{\~a}o para a habilidade
preditiva sobre a regi{\~a}o equatorial da Am{\'e}rica do Sul.
Esse padr{\~a}o apresenta uma forte rela{\c{c}}{\~a}o com a
atividade convectiva sobre a regi{\~a}o equatorial do Oceano
Pac{\'{\i}}fico Oeste, influenciado principalmente pelo ENOS.
ABSTRACT: The aim of this work was to study the predictive ability
of the Brazilian Global Atmospheric Model version 1.2 (BAM-1.2) at
sub-seasonal time-scale and the associated sources of
predictability over South America during the 12 extended austral
summers (November March, 1999/2000 2010/2011). Seven BAM-1.2
configurations were tested in terms of vertical resolution, deep
convection and boundary layer parameterizations, as well as
atmospheric component and soil moisture initializations, in order
to identify the configuration with best performance when
predicting weekly precipitation anomalies, weekly mean 2-meter
temperature (T2M) and the Madden and Julian Oscillation (MJO)
daily evolution. With BAM-1.2 configuration determined, an
inter-comparison performance assessment of 11 member ensemble
hindcasts produced with BAM-1.2 against four Sub-seasonal to
Seasonal (S2S) prediction project models from Japan Meteorological
Agency (JMA), Environmental and Climate Change Canada (ECCC),
European Centre for Mediumrange Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and
Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) was performed. Lastly, the
main spatio-temporal variability modes of weekly precipitation
anomalies were determined. These modes were associated with
atmospheric/oceanic phenomena to define the main sources of
predictability at subseasonal time-scale over South America during
the extended summer. The performed inter comparison revealed that
for prediction of precipitation anomalies and MJO BAM-1.2 showed
competitive performance compared to the investigated S2S models,
but with respect to ECMWF there is scope for improvements,
possibly by a combination of including coupling to an interactive
ocean and improving resolution, physical parameterization schemes
and the ensemble generation approach for initialization. Regarding
the main sources of predictability over South America, the South
American seesaw pattern has been found to be the dominant mode of
variability. This pattern is strongly influenced by oscillations
within the intraseasonal and interannual variability time scales.
This suggests that several phenomena can influence the formation
of this pattern, acting as sources of predictability [e.g.,
tropical-extratropical interaction, El-Niņo South Oscillation
(ENSO), and MJO]. Besides, the second mode of variability
contributes to the predictive ability over the equatorial South
American region. This mode has a strong relationship with the
convective activity over the Equatorial West Pacific Ocean,
influenced mainly by ENSO.",
committee = "Bonatti, Jos{\'e} Paulo (presidente) and Coelho, Caio Augusto dos
Santos (orientador) and Ferreira, Nelson Jesuz and Dias, Pedro
Leite da Silva and Andrade, Felipe Marques de",
englishtitle = "Sub-seasonal prediction with the global atmospheric model of
CPTEC/INPE: configuration, evaluation and investigation of sources
of predictability for South America",
language = "pt",
pages = "175",
ibi = "8JMKD3MGP3W34R/43KQ468",
url = "http://urlib.net/ibi/8JMKD3MGP3W34R/43KQ468",
targetfile = "publicacao.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "28 abr. 2024"
}