@Article{ĮvilaAlvaMendAmor:2021:BaStVi,
               author = "{\'A}vila, Frederico Fernandes de and Alval{\'a}, Regina 
                         C{\'e}lia dos Santos and Mendes, Rodolfo M. and Amore, Diogo J.",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Centro 
                         Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais 
                         (CEMADEN)} and {Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de 
                         Desastres Naturais (CEMADEN)} and {Centro Nacional de 
                         Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais (CEMADEN)}",
                title = "The influence of land use/land cover variability and rainfall 
                         intensity in triggering landslides: a back-analysis study via 
                         physically based models",
              journal = "Natural Hazards",
                 year = "2021",
               volume = "105",
               number = "1",
                pages = "1139--1161",
                month = "Jan.",
             keywords = "Landslides · Hillslope stability · Land use and land cover · 
                         TRIGRS.",
             abstract = "The objective of this study was to use physically based models to 
                         carry out a back-analysis of the set of factors that may have 
                         infuenced slope instability and the consequent development of 65 
                         landslides in the Bengalar Stream basin, located in the Northern 
                         Region of S{\~a}o Jos{\'e} dos Campos, S{\~a}o Paulo State, 
                         Brazil, associated with rainfall between March 7 and 8, 2016. 
                         Unlike other models, the FS FIORI model used in this study allowed 
                         extra variables to be added to the model that can infuence 
                         hillslope stability and is associated with land use and land cover 
                         (LULC) variability. Analysis of intense short-term and accumulated 
                         long-term rainfall infuence on slope instability was possible via 
                         a TRIGRS model. A comparative analysis was also carried out 
                         between a static model (FS FIORI) and a transient model (TRIGRS) 
                         which considered the factor of safety and pore pressure to be a 
                         function of precipitation and infltration rates. Despite the 
                         diferences in their hydrological components, both models were 
                         shown to present relatively similar and demonstrated stability 
                         rates coherence, according to the characteristics of each model. 
                         The FS FIORI model only classifed 1.3% of the entire basin as 
                         unstable (FS\≤1), whereas the TRIGRS model classifed 4.5% 
                         and 2.9% of the entire basin as unstable in scenarios 1 and 2, 
                         respectively. The validity and the accuracy of each model were 
                         tested via a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and an 
                         area under the curve (AUC). AUC values were: 0.6552 for the FS 
                         FIORI model, and 0.7238 and 0.7186 for scenarios 1 and 2 of the 
                         TRIGRS model, respectively. The models performed well, with values 
                         considered to be acceptable. These results demonstrate an 
                         advancement in slope stability modeling studies, including 
                         conditioning factors associated with LULC for slope stability 
                         calculations.",
                  doi = "10.1007/s11069-020-04324-x",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04324-x",
                 issn = "0921-030X",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "avila_influence.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "20 maio 2024"
}