@Article{SantosPeSiGuAlOlMa:2020:MuFuPr,
               author = "Santos, Diego Jatob{\'a} dos and Pedra, George Ulguim and Silva, 
                         Marcelo Guatura Barbosa da and Guimar{\~a}es J{\'u}nior, Carlos 
                         Augusto and Alves, Lincoln Muniz and Oliveira, Gilvan Sampaio de 
                         and Marengo, Jos{\'e} Ant{\^o}nio",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de 
                         Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas 
                         Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais 
                         (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and 
                         {Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais 
                         (CEMADEN)}",
                title = "Mudan{\c{c}}as futuras de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o e temperatura 
                         no Brasil a partir dos n{\'{\i}}veis de aquecimento global de 
                         1,5ºC, 2ºC e 4ºC",
              journal = "Sustentabilidade em Debate",
                 year = "2020",
               volume = "11",
               number = "3",
                pages = "74--90",
                month = "dez",
             keywords = "Mudan{\c{c}}a do clima. Helix. Aquecimento global. 
                         Proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es clim{\'a}ticas. Modelos clim{\'a}ticos, 
                         Climate Change, HELIX, Global Warming, Climate projections, 
                         Climate models.",
             abstract = "O presente estudo teve como objetivo analisar os impactos do 
                         aquecimento global de 1,5ºC, 2ºC e 4ºC acima dos n{\'{\i}}veis 
                         pr{\'e}-industriais sobre o territ{\'o}rio brasileiro. As 
                         mudan{\c{c}}as projetadas entre os diferentes n{\'{\i}}veis de 
                         aquecimento global foram analisadas para a 
                         precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o, temperatura e {\'{\i}}ndices de 
                         extremos clim{\'a}ticos. As proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es utilizadas 
                         s{\~a}o oriundas do modelo clim{\'a}tico global HadGEM3-A, 
                         derivadas do projeto internacional High-End cLimate Impacts and 
                         eXtremes (Helix), Reino Unido, for{\c{c}}ado pela temperatura da 
                         superf{\'{\i}}cie do mar e concentra{\c{c}}{\~a}o de gelo 
                         marinho de um subconjunto de seis modelos clim{\'a}ticos globais 
                         do Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) e 
                         considerando o cen{\'a}rio de emiss{\~a}o Representative 
                         Concentration Pathways (RCP 8.5) ao longo do s{\'e}culo XXI. As 
                         proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es indicam diferen{\c{c}}as robustas nas 
                         caracter{\'{\i}}sticas clim{\'a}ticas regionais. Essas 
                         diferen{\c{c}}as incluem aumentos: na temperatura m{\'{\i}}nima 
                         e m{\'a}xima do ar pr{\'o}ximo {\`a} superf{\'{\i}}cie para 
                         todas as regi{\~o}es do Pa{\'{\i}}s, nos extremos de calor, em 
                         particular no norte do Pa{\'{\i}}s, na ocorr{\^e}ncia de chuva 
                         intensa (regi{\~o}es Sul e Sudeste) e na probabilidade de seca e 
                         d{\'e}ficits de chuva em algumas regi{\~o}es (Norte e Nordeste). 
                         ABSTRACT: The present study analyzes the impacts of global warming 
                         of 1.5ºC, 2ºC, and 4ºC above pre-industrial levels in the 
                         Brazilian territory. Climate change projected among the different 
                         global warming levels has been analyzed for rainfall, temperature 
                         and extreme climate indices. The projections are derived from the 
                         global climate model HadGEM3-A, from the High-End cLimate Impacts 
                         and eXtremes (HELIX) international project, from the United 
                         Kingdom, forced by sea surface temperature and sea ice 
                         concentration of a subset of six CMIP5 (Coupled Model 
                         Intercomparison Project phase 5) global climate models and 
                         considering the RCP 8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathways) 
                         emissions scenario throughout the 21st century. Projections 
                         indicate robust differences in regional climate characteristics. 
                         These differences include changes: in the minimum and maximum air 
                         temperature close to the surface to all the countrys regions, in 
                         extremes of heat, particularly in northern Brazil, in the 
                         occurrence of heavy rainfall (Southern and Southeastern regions), 
                         and in the probability of droughts and rain deficits in some 
                         regions (Northern and Northeastern Brazil).",
                  doi = "10.18472/SustDeb.v11n3.2020.33933",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.18472/SustDeb.v11n3.2020.33933",
                 issn = "2177-7675",
             language = "pt",
           targetfile = "lemes_analysis.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "24 abr. 2024"
}