@Article{PennaTorrGarcMare:2021:PrFuCl,
               author = "Penna, Ana Caroline and Torres, Roger Rodrigues and Garcia, 
                         S{\^a}mia Regina and Marengo, Jos{\'e} Ant{\^o}nio",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and 
                         {Universidade Federal de Itajub{\'a} (UNIFEI)} and {Universidade 
                         Federal de Itajub{\'a} (UNIFEI)} and {Centro Nacional de 
                         Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais (CEMADEN)}",
                title = "Moisture flows on Southeast Brazil: Present and future climate",
              journal = "International Journal of Climatology",
                 year = "2021",
               volume = "41",
               number = "S1",
                pages = "E935--E951",
                month = "Jan.",
             keywords = "climate change, CMIP5, moisture balance, South America.",
             abstract = "The characterization of the moisture flows over South America, 
                         with a special focus on the Southeast Brazil (SEB), was performed 
                         through the analysis of 21 Earth System Models (ESMs) belonging to 
                         the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for the 
                         present climate (19712000) and projections for the late 21st 
                         century (20712100) using a scenario of high radiative forcing (RCP 
                         8.5). The results show that the ESMs simulate well the spatial 
                         distribution of the flow and the divergence of moisture in the 
                         present climate, when compared with the 20CRv2c reanalysis, 
                         although some biases have been identified. In relation to the 
                         magnitude of the moisture flow, the models underestimate the 
                         moisture convergence mainly on the central, south and southeast 
                         regions of South America. On SEB, the simulations show that the 
                         main sources of moisture for the region come from the north and 
                         east edges, confirming the contribution of moisture from the 
                         Amazon Basin and the South Atlantic Ocean. Climate change 
                         projections indicate an increase in moisture flow across South 
                         America, and regions of moisture convergence (divergence) in the 
                         present climate are projected to be even more convergent 
                         (divergent) in the future climate. In addition, the moisture flow 
                         over the SEB also showed to be more intensified on all lateral 
                         edges, as well as the moisture balance. This result is consistent 
                         with some studies on projections of climate change towards the end 
                         of the 21st century, which indicate that there will be an 
                         intensification of meteorological systems such as the Low Level 
                         Jet and the South American Monsoon System, contributing to the 
                         increase of moisture transport to the SEB region.",
                  doi = "10.1002/joc.6738",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.6738",
                 issn = "0899-8418",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "penna_moisture.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "20 maio 2024"
}