@Article{ChaiMaNoVoChDo:2021:CoAmLa,
author = "Chai, Yuanfang and Martins, Guilherme and Nobre, Carlos Afonso and
Von Randow, Celso and Chen, Tiexi and Dolman, Han",
affiliation = "{Free University Amsterdam} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas
Espaciais (INPE)} and {} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas
Espaciais (INPE)} and {Nanjing University of Science and
Technology} and {Free University Amsterdam}",
title = "Constraining Amazonian land surface temperature sensitivity to
precipitation and the probability of forest dieback",
journal = "NPJ Climate and Atmospheric Science",
year = "2021",
volume = "4",
number = "1",
pages = "e6",
month = "Dec.",
abstract = "The complete or partial collapse of the forests of Amazonia is
consistently named as one of the top ten possible tipping points
of Planet Earth in a changing climate. However, apart from a few
observational studies that showed increased mortality after the
severe droughts of 2005 and 2010, the evidence for such collapse
depends primarily on modelling. Such studies are notoriously
deficient at predicting the rainfall in the Amazon basin and how
the vegetation interacts with the rainfall is poorly represented.
Here, we use long-term surface-based observations of the air
temperature and rainfall in Amazonia to provide a constraint on
the modelled sensitivity of temperature to changes in
precipitation. This emergent constraint also allows us to
significantly constrain the likelihood of a forest collapse or
dieback. We conclude that Amazon dieback under IPCC scenario
RCP8.5 (crossing the tipping point) is not likely to occur in the
twenty-first century.",
doi = "10.1038/s41612-021-00162-1",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41612-021-00162-1",
issn = "2397-3722",
language = "en",
targetfile = "chai_constraining.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "21 maio 2024"
}