@InProceedings{HagenHuGaOmChCa:2021:ClChRi,
               author = "Hagen, Isabel and Huggel, Christian and Gallardo, Laura Ramajo and 
                         Ometto, Jean Pierre Henry Balbaud and Chac{\'o}n, Noem{\'{\i}} 
                         and Castellanos, Edwin J.",
          affiliation = "{University of Z{\"u}rich} and {University of Z{\"u}rich} and 
                         {Centro de Estudios Avanzados en Zonas Aridas (CEAZA)} and 
                         {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Venezuelan 
                         Institute for Scientific Research} and {University of the Valley 
                         of Guatemala}",
                title = "Climate change-related risks and adaptation measures in South and 
                         Central America during the 21st century",
                 year = "2021",
         organization = "EGU General Assembly",
            publisher = "EGU",
             abstract = "The consequences of climate change in South and Central America 
                         are already widespread and take on many forms. Albeit there is an 
                         increasing number of studies focusing on specific climate 
                         change-related risks in the region, a synthesis of risks for the 
                         21st century, together with current and future adaptation options 
                         is lacking. This study synthesizes major climate related risks in 
                         South and Central America, while also looking at implications for 
                         adaptation measures and (un)avoidable loss and damage. A review of 
                         over 100 peer-reviewed articles published since 2013 was completed 
                         to examine the current and projected state of the risks. We 
                         identify eight key risks in South and Central America that have 
                         the potential to become severe with climate change during the 21st 
                         century. The criteria for a severe risk relate to the number of 
                         people potentially affected, the severity of the negative effects 
                         of the risk, the importance of the affected systems, and the 
                         irreversibility versus potential to reduce the risk. The risks are 
                         analysed in relation to different climate scenarios, and changes 
                         in associated hazards, exposure, and/or vulnerability. The risks 
                         include 1: risk of food insecurity due to repeated and/or extreme 
                         drought conditions; 2: risk to life and infrastructure due to 
                         floods and landslides; 3: risk of water insecurity in Central 
                         America and the Andes region; 4: systemic risks of surpassing 
                         infrastructure and public service system capacities due to 
                         cascading impacts of storms, floods and epidemics; 5: risk of 
                         severe health effects due to increasing epidemics (in particular 
                         vector-borne diseases); 6: risk of large-scale ecological 
                         transformation of the Amazon forest; 7: risk to coral reef 
                         ecosystems due to coral bleaching in Central America; 8: risk to 
                         coastal socio-ecological systems due to sea level rise, 
                         intensification of upwelling and ocean acidification. In addition, 
                         we focus on already implemented and possible adaptation measures 
                         for each of the risks. Subsequently, we draw conclusions of the 
                         potential losses and damages caused by each risk. Our assessment 
                         of risks in the Central and South America region show that several 
                         risks have the potential to become severe already in the near 
                         future. The extent of the severity is driven by the specific 
                         regions exposure, vulnerability and adaptation capacity. 
                         Adaptation capacity is in turn dependent on physical as well as 
                         socio-economic systems. Inequalities, corruption, and poor 
                         communication between decision makers, stakeholders and the 
                         scientific community together with a lack of available data can 
                         critically limit adaptation options. Still, many adaptation 
                         options are available, and efforts to thoroughly research further 
                         adaptation measures should be of highest priority. This will 
                         undoubtedly save both lives and severe economic damage as South 
                         and Central America face the consequences of climate change.",
  conference-location = "Online",
      conference-year = "19-30 apr.",
                  doi = "10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2166",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2166",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "EGU21-2166-print.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "20 maio 2024"
}