@Article{MarsigliEACCCDGHLM:2021:ObHiWe,
author = "Marsigli, Chiara and Ebert, Elizabeth and Ashrit, Raghavendra and
Casati, B{\'a}rbara and Chen, Jing and Coelho, Caio Augusto dos
Santos and Dorninger, Manfred and Gilleland, Eric and Haiden,
Thomas and Landman, Stephanie and Mittermaier, Marion",
affiliation = "{Deutscher Wetterdienst} and {Bureau of Meteorology} and {National
Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF)} and MRD/ECCC
and {Center of Numerical Weather Prediction} and {Instituto
Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {University of Vienna}
and {National Center for Atmospheric Research} and ECMWF and
{South African Weather Service} and MetOffice",
title = "Review article: Observations for high-impact weather and their use
in verification",
journal = "Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences",
year = "2021",
volume = "21",
number = "4",
pages = "1297--1312",
month = "Apr.",
abstract = "Verification of forecasts and warnings of high-impact weather is
needed by the meteorological centres, but how to perform it still
presents many open questions, starting from which data are
suitable as reference. This paper reviews new observations which
can be considered for the verification of high-impact weather and
provides advice for their usage in objective verification. Two
high-impact weather phenomena are considered: thunderstorm and
fog. First, a framework for the verification of high-impact
weather is proposed, including the definition of forecast and
observations in this context and creation of a verification set.
Then, new observations showing a potential for the detection and
quantification of high-impact weather are reviewed, including
remote sensing datasets, products developed for nowcasting,
datasets derived from telecommunication systems, data collected
from citizens, reports of impacts and claim/damage reports from
insurance companies. The observation characteristics which are
relevant for their usage in forecast verification are also
discussed. Examples of forecast evaluation and verification are
then presented, highlighting the methods which can be adopted to
address the issues posed by the usage of these non-conventional
observations and objectively quantify the skill of a high-impact
weather forecast.",
doi = "10.5194/nhess-21-1297-2021",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1297-2021",
issn = "1684-9981",
language = "en",
targetfile = "marsigli_2021.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "20 maio 2024"
}