@Article{LimaGhPePaEnQu:2021:PoChCo,
               author = "Lima, Luciana Shigihara and Gherardi, Douglas Francisco Marcolino 
                         and Pezzi, Luciano Ponzi and Passos, Leilane Gon{\c{c}}alves dos 
                         and Endo, Clarissa Akemi Kajiya and Quimbayo, Juan Pablo",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de 
                         Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {University of Bergen} and 
                         {Institute of Marine Research} and {Universidade de S{\~a}o Paulo 
                         (USP)}",
                title = "Potential changes in the connectivity of marine protected areas 
                         driven by extreme ocean warming",
              journal = "Scientific Reports",
                 year = "2021",
               volume = "11",
               number = "1",
                pages = "e10339",
                month = "Dec.",
             abstract = "Projected future climate scenarios anticipate a warmer tropical 
                         ocean and changes in surface currents that will likely influence 
                         the survival of marine organisms and the connectivity of marine 
                         protected areas (MPAs) networks. We simulated the regional effects 
                         of climate change on the demographic connectivity of parrotfishes 
                         in nine MPAs in the South Atlantic through downscaling of the 
                         HadGEM2-ES Earth System Model running the RCP 8.5 greenhouse gas 
                         trajectory. Results indicate a tropicalization scenario over the 
                         tropical southwest Atlantic following an increase of sea surface 
                         temperature (SST) between 1.8 and 4.5 °C and changes in mean 
                         surface currents between \− 0.6 to 0.5 m s\−1 
                         relative to present conditions. High mortality rates will reduce 
                         demographic connectivity and increase the isolation of oceanic 
                         islands. The simulation of organismal response to ocean warming 
                         shows that acclimation can significantly improve (p < 0.001) 
                         particle survival, promoting connectivity and tropicalization of 
                         MPAs, with potential impacts on their functional integrity and 
                         long-term resilience.",
                  doi = "10.1038/s41598-021-89192-6",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-89192-6",
                 issn = "2045-2322",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "lima_potential.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "28 abr. 2024"
}