@Article{AlmazrouiAIRKAOIRSAATSHDSKNSREMMACS:2021:AsCMPe,
author = "Almazroui, Mansour and Ashfa, Moetasim and Islam, M. Nazrul and
Rashi, Irfan Ur and Kamil, Shahzad and Abid, Muhammad Adnan and
O'Brien, Enda and Ismail, Muhammad and Reboita, Michelle
Sim{\~o}es and Sorensson, Anna A. and Arias, Paola A. and Alves,
Lincoln Muniz and Tippett, Michel K. and Saeed, Sajjad and
Haarsma, Rein and Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J. and Saeed, Fahad and
Kucharski, Fred and Nadeem, Imran and Silva-Vidal, Yamina and
Rivera, Juan A. and Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar and Martinez-Castro,
Daniel and Munoz, Angel G. and Ali, Md Arfan and Coppola, Erika
and Sylla, Mouhamodou Bamba",
affiliation = "{King Abdulaziz University} and {Oak Ridge National Laboratory}
and {King Abdulaziz University} and {Climate Change Impact and
Integration Cell (CIIC)} and {Climate Change Impact and
Integration Cell (CIIC)} and {International Centre for Theoretical
Physics (ICTP)} and {Irish Centre for High-End Computing} and
{King Abdulaziz University} and {Universidade Federal de
Itajub{\'a} (UNIFEI)} and {Universidad de Buenos Aires} and
{Universidad de Antioquia} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas
Espaciais (INPE)} and {Columbia University} and {International
Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP)} and {Royal Netherlands
Meteorological Institut (KNMI)} and {Instituci{\'o} Catalana de
Recerca I Estudis Avan{\c{c}}ats (ICREA)} and {Climate Analytics}
and {International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP)} and
{University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences} and {Instituto
Geof{\'{\i}}sico del Per{\'u}} and Instituto Argentino de
Nivolog{\'{\i}}a, Glaciolog{\'{\i}}a y Ciencias Ambientales
(IANIGLA) and {The Earth Institute At Columbia University} and
Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones en Glaciares y Ecosistemas
de Montaņa, Huaraz and Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones en
Glaciares y Ecosistemas de Montaņa, Huaraz and {University of
Information Science and Technology (NUIST)} and {International
Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP)} and {African Institute for
Mathematical Science}",
title = "Assessment of CMIP6 Performance and Projected Temperature and
Precipitation Changes Over South America",
journal = "Earth Systems and Environment",
year = "2021",
volume = "5",
pages = "155--183",
keywords = "Climate change, CMIP6, Global climate models, South America.",
abstract = "We evaluate the performance of a large ensemble of Global Climate
Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase
6 (CMIP6) over South America for a recent past reference period
and examine their projections of twenty-first century
precipitation and temperature changes. The future changes are
computed for two time slices (20402059 and 20802099) relative to
the reference period (19952014) under four Shared Socioeconomic
Pathways (SSPs, SSP12.6, SSP24.5, SSP37.0 and SSP58.5). The CMIP6
GCMs successfully capture the main climate characteristics across
South America. However, they exhibit varying skill in the
spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation and temperature at
the sub-regional scale, particularly over high latitudes and
altitudes. Future precipitation exhibits a decrease over the east
of the northern Andes in tropical South America and the southern
Andes in Chile and Amazonia, and an increase over southeastern
South America and the northern Andesa result generally consistent
with earlier CMIP (3 and 5) projections. However, most of these
changes remain within the range of variability of the reference
period. In contrast, temperature increases are robust in terms of
magnitude even under the SSP12.6. Future changes mostly progress
monotonically from the weakest to the strongest forcing scenario,
and from the mid-century to late-century projection period. There
is an increase in the seasonality of the intra-annual
precipitation distribution, as the wetter part of the year
contributes relatively more to the annual total. Furthermore, an
increasingly heavy-tailed precipitation distribution and a
rightward shifted temperature distribution provide strong
indications of a more intense hydrological cycle as greenhouse gas
emissions increase. The relative distance of an individual GCM
from the ensemble mean does not substantially vary across
different scenarios. We found no clear systematic linkage between
model spread about the mean in the reference period and the
magnitude of simulated sub-regional climate change in the future
period. Overall, these results could be useful for regional
climate change impact assessments across South America.",
doi = "10.1007/s41748-021-00233-6",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s41748-021-00233-6",
issn = "2509-9434",
language = "en",
targetfile = "Almazroui2021_Article_AssessmentOfCMIP6PerformanceAn.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "20 maio 2024"
}