@Article{LemosAndRodHisAgu:2021:CoReLo,
               author = "Lemos, Cassia Maria Gama and Andrade, Pedro Ribeiro and Rodrigues, 
                         Ricardo R. and Hissa, Leticia and Aguiar, Ana Paula Dutra de",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Universidade de 
                         S{\~a}o Paulo (USP)} and {Smithsonian Institution} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "Combining regional to local restoration goals in the Brazilian 
                         Atlantic forest",
              journal = "Regional Environmental Change",
                 year = "2021",
               volume = "21",
               number = "3",
                month = "Sept.",
             keywords = "Cost-effectiveness, Ecological forest restoration, Land change 
                         models, Payments for environmental services, Restoration methods, 
                         Restoration planning.",
             abstract = "To achieve regional and international large-scale restoration 
                         goals with minimum costs, several restoration commitments rely on 
                         natural regeneration, a passive and inexpensive strategy. However, 
                         natural regeneration potential may vary within the landscape, 
                         mainly due to its historical context. In this work, we use 
                         spatially explicit restoration scenarios to explore how and where, 
                         within a given region, multiple restoration commitments could be 
                         combined to achieve cost-effectiveness outcomes. Our goal is to 
                         facilitate the elaboration of forest restoration plans at the 
                         regional level, taking into consideration the costs for active and 
                         passive restoration methods. The approach includes (1) a 
                         statistical analysis to estimate the natural regeneration 
                         potential for a given area based on alternative sets of 
                         biophysical, land cover, and/or socioeconomic factors and (2) the 
                         use of a land change allocation model to explore the 
                         cost-effectiveness of combining multiple restoration commitments 
                         in a given area through alternative scenarios. We test our 
                         approach in a strategic region in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest 
                         Biome, the Paraiba Valley in S{\~a}o Paulo State. Using the 
                         available data for 2011, calibrated for 2015, we build alternative 
                         scenarios for allocating natural regeneration until 2025. Our 
                         models indicate that the natural regeneration potential of the 
                         region is actually very low, and the cost-effectiveness outcomes 
                         are similar for all scenarios. We believe our approach can be used 
                         to support the regional-level decision-making about the 
                         implementation of multiple commitments aiming at the same target 
                         area. It can also be combined with other approaches for more 
                         refined analysis (e.g., optimization models).",
                  doi = "10.1007/s10113-021-01792-0",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-021-01792-0",
                 issn = "1436-3798 and 1436-378X",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "Lemos2021_Article_CombiningRegionalToLocalRestore.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "09 maio 2024"
}