@Article{MichelsBritoRodrCruzVian:2021:ClChPo,
               author = "Michels Brito, Adriane and Rodriguez, Daniel Andres and Cruz 
                         J{\'u}nior, Wellington Luis and Vianna, Jo{\~a}o Nildo de 
                         Souza",
          affiliation = "{Universidade de Bras{\'{\i}}lia (UnB)} and {Universidade 
                         Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)} and {Instituto Nacional de 
                         Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Universidade de Bras{\'{\i}}lia 
                         (UnB)}",
                title = "The climate change potential effects on the run-of-river plant and 
                         the environmental and economic dimensions of sustainability",
              journal = "Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews",
                 year = "2021",
               volume = "147",
                pages = "e111238",
                month = "Sept.",
             keywords = "Amazonia, Energy, Climate change, Run-of-river plants, 
                         Sustainability.",
             abstract = "In this work, we evaluate the environmental and economic 
                         sustainability dimensions of a run-of-river hydroelectric plant 
                         operation regarding environmental impacts and potential direct and 
                         indirect effects of climate change. Results suggest the generation 
                         of a vicious cycle of clean generation and dirty generation, 
                         enhanced by a positive feedback with climate change impacts. This 
                         cycle is triggered by the tradeoffs between environmental 
                         protection policies and the socioeconomic pressure for energy 
                         production, embedded in an energy production matrix that 
                         prioritizes fossil fuel-based production as responses to peak 
                         energy demand. The climate projections were generated by the Eta 
                         Regional Climate Model from the National Institute for Space 
                         Research. They were forced by the atmospheric simulations of the 
                         Interdisciplinary Climate Research Model (MIROC5) and the Hadley 
                         Center Global Environmental Model (HadGEM2-ES) under the RCP4.5 
                         and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. The MHD-INPE Distributed 
                         Hydrological Model was used to generate streamflow projections. 
                         Environmental impacts were assessed by accounting for carbon stock 
                         and sequestration, greenhouse gas emissions, and energy cost. 
                         Climate projections indicated reduced precipitation and increased 
                         temperature. The streamflow will present progressively reductions 
                         of the flow volume until the end of the century, which undermines 
                         the plant's ability to ensure firm energy and induce thermal 
                         plants' activation to supply the demand. This activation will lead 
                         to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions and an increase in the 
                         price of energy, which may lower the benefits in carbon stock 
                         associated with a run-of-river hydropower plant and negatively 
                         influence the reduction commitments assumed by Brazil.",
                  doi = "10.1016/j.rser.2021.111238",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2021.111238",
                 issn = "1364-0321",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "michels_climate.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "30 abr. 2024"
}