@Article{AshfaqCRTIOAKATSMZDDCG:2021:RoLaTw,
               author = "Ashfaq, Moetasim and Cavazos, Tereza and Reboita, Michelle 
                         Sim{\~o}es and Torres-Alavez, Jos{\'e} Abraham and Im, Eun-Soon 
                         and Olusegun, Christiana Funmilola and Alves, Lincoln Muniz and 
                         Key, Kesondra and Adeniyi, Mojisola A. and Tall, Moustapha and 
                         Sylla, Mouhamadou Bamba and Mehmood, Shahid and Zafar, Qudsia and 
                         Das, Sushant and Diallo, Ismaila and Coppola, Erika and Giorgi, 
                         Filippo",
          affiliation = "{Oak Ridge National Laboratory} and {Center for Scientifc Research 
                         and Higher Education of Ensenada} and {Universidade Federal de 
                         Itajub{\'a} (UNIFEI)} and {Abdus Salam International Centre for 
                         Theoretical Physic} and {Hong Kong University of Science and 
                         Technology} and {National Space Research and Development Agency} 
                         and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Oak 
                         Ridge National Laboratory} and {University of Ibadan} and 
                         {Universit{\'e} Cheikh Anta Diop} and {African Institute for 
                         Mathematical Sciences (AIMS)} and {Oak Ridge National Laboratory} 
                         and {Global Change Impact Studies Centre} and {Abdus Salam 
                         International Centre for Theoretical Physics} and {University of 
                         California-Los Angele} and {Abdus Salam International Centre for 
                         Theoretical Physics} and {Abdus Salam International Centre for 
                         Theoretical Physics}",
                title = "Robust late twenty\‑frst century shift in the regional 
                         monsoons in RegCM\‑CORDEX simulations",
              journal = "Climate Dynamics",
                 year = "2021",
               volume = "57",
                pages = "1463--1488",
             abstract = "We use an unprecedented ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) 
                         projections over seven regional CORDEX domains to provide, for the 
                         first time, an RCM-based global view of monsoon changes at various 
                         levels of increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. All regional 
                         simulations are conducted using RegCM4 at a 25 km horizontal grid 
                         spacing using lateral and lower boundary forcing from three 
                         General Circulation Models (GCMs), which are part of the fifth 
                         phase of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5). Each 
                         simulation covers the period from 1970 through 2100 under two 
                         Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). 
                         Regional climate simulations exhibit high fidelity in capturing 
                         key characteristics of precipitation and atmospheric dynamics 
                         across monsoon regions in the historical period. In the future 
                         period, regional monsoons exhibit a spatially robust delay in the 
                         monsoon onset, an increase in seasonality, and a reduction in the 
                         rainy season length at higher levels of radiative forcing. All 
                         regions with substantial delays in the monsoon onset exhibit a 
                         decrease in pre-monsoon precipitation, indicating a strong 
                         connection between pre-monsoon drying and a shift in the monsoon 
                         onset. The weakening of latent heat driven atmospheric warming 
                         during the pre-monsoon period delays the overturning of 
                         atmospheric subsidence in the monsoon regions, which defers their 
                         transitioning into deep convective states. Monsoon changes under 
                         the RCP2.6 scenario are mostly within the baseline variability.",
                  doi = "10.1007/s00382-020-05306-2",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05306-2",
                 issn = "0930-7575",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "Ashfaq2021_Article_RobustLateTwenty-firstCenturyS_Comprimir.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "20 maio 2024"
}