@MastersThesis{SucaHuallata:2022:PrClSa,
author = "Suca Huallata, Lenin Abimael",
title = "Previs{\~a}o clim{\'a}tica sazonal de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o
para o Peru com abordagem estat{\'{\i}}stica",
school = "Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)",
year = "2022",
address = "S{\~a}o Jos{\'e} dos Campos",
month = "2022-09-12",
keywords = "an{\'a}lise de correla{\c{c}}{\~a}o can{\^o}nica (ACC),
modelos estat{\'{\i}}sticos, precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o sazonal,
preditores oce{\^a}nicos e atmosf{\'e}ricos, canonical
correlation analysis (ACC), statistical models, seasonal
precipitation, oceanic and atmospheric predictors.",
abstract = "Previs{\~o}es clim{\'a}ticas fornecem informa{\c{c}}{\~o}es
antecipadas que podem ajudar a reduzir os impactos negativos
associados a per{\'{\i}}odos de excesso ou d{\'e}ficit de
precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o em diversos setores da sociedade, e
fortalecer o desenvolvimento socioecon{\^o}mico de uma
determinada regi{\~a}o. Neste contexto, o objetivo deste estudo
foi desenvolver e avaliar procedimentos para a
produ{\c{c}}{\~a}o de previs{\~o}es clim{\'a}ticas sazonais de
precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o para o Peru; usando uma abordagem
estat{\'{\i}}stica baseada na an{\'a}lise de
correla{\c{c}}{\~a}o can{\^o}nica (ACC) com diferentes
preditores, como a temperatura da superf{\'{\i}}cie do mar (TSM)
e vari{\'a}veis de circula{\c{c}}{\~a}o atmosf{\'e}rica em
n{\'{\i}}veis baixos (850 hPa), m{\'e}dio (500 hPa) e alto (200
hPa) da atmosfera. Os resultados mostraram que as principais
vari{\'a}veis atmosf{\'e}ricas e oce{\^a}nicas analisadas no
m{\^e}s de outubro, que foram identificadas como relevantes
preditoras para a previs{\~a}o de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o no
trimestre Dezembro-Janeiro-Fevereiro (DJF) posterior ao m{\^e}s
de outubro sobre o Peru foram a TSM com influ{\^e}ncia em setores
da Costa Norte, Costa Central, toda a Serra, Selva Norte e Selva
Central do Peru; a vari{\'a}vel de Altura Geopotencial em (850
hPa) baixos n{\'{\i}}veis (AG850) com influ{\^e}ncia na Costa
Norte, Costa Central, todos os setores da Serra e Selva Peruana; a
vari{\'a}vel de Press{\~a}o ao N{\'{\i}}vel m{\'e}dio do Mar
(PNM) com influ{\^e}ncia nos setores de toda a Costa e Serra
Peruana al{\'e}m da Selva Norte e Selva Sul do Peru; a
vari{\'a}vel Vento Zonal em baixos n{\'{\i}}veis (850 hPa) com
influ{\^e}ncia em setores da Costa Norte e toda Serra do Peru; e
o Vento Zonal (200 hPa) em altos n{\'{\i}}veis (VZ200) com
influ{\^e}ncia na Costa Norte, Costa Sul, e toda a Serra do Peru.
Como a vari{\'a}vel oce{\^a}nica (TSM) foi identificada como o
preditor predominante de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o sobre o Peru,
essa vari{\'a}vel foi combinada com outras vari{\'a}veis
atmosf{\'e}ricas (AG850, VZ850 e PNM), sendo os maiores
{\'{\i}}ndices de habilidade preditiva para o setor Serra Sul
obtidos atrav{\'e}s da combina{\c{c}}{\~a}o de TSM e VZ850,
enquanto as combina{\c{c}}{\~o}es de TSM e PNM, e TSM e AG850
apresentaram os maiores valores para o setor Serra Norte. Ao
combinar as duas vari{\'a}veis atmosf{\'e}ricas (PNM, VZ850 e
PNM, AG850) que se destacaram com melhor desempenho com a
vari{\'a}vel oce{\^a}nica (TSM), resultados semelhantes aos
obtidos atrav{\'e}s das combina{\c{c}}{\~o}es anteriores foram
encontrados nos diferentes setores do Peru. Portanto, para a
produ{\c{c}}{\~a}o de previs{\~o}es sazonais
estat{\'{\i}}sticas de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o para DJF sobre o
Peru, recomenda-se a combina{\c{c}}{\~a}o da TSM com pelo menos
uma vari{\'a}vel atmosf{\'e}rica para contemplar os mecanismos
f{\'{\i}}sicos do sistema clim{\'a}tico acoplado que modulam a
variabilidade clim{\'a}tica da precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o sazonal.
ABSTRACT: Climate forecast provide advanced information that can
help reduce the negative impacts associated with periods of excess
or deficit of precipitation in different sectors of society, and
strengthen the socioeconomic development of a given region. In
this context, the objective of this study was to develop and
evaluate procedures for the production of seasonal precipitation
forecasts for Peru; using a statistical approach based on
canonical correlation analysis (CCA) with different predictors
such as sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation
variables at low (850 hPa), medium (500 hPa) and high (200 hPa)
levels of the atmosphere. The results showed that the main
atmospheric and oceanic variables analyzed in the month of
October, which were identified as relevant predictors for the
forecast of precipitation in the December-January- February (DJF)
quarter after the month of October over Peru, were the SST with
influence in sectors of the North Coast, Central Coast, all
Sierra, Selva Norte and Selva Central of Peru; the Geopotential
Height variable at (850 hPa) low levels (AG850) with influence on
the North Coast, Central Coast, all sectors of the Sierra and
Peruvian Jungle; the Mean Sea Level Pressure (PNM) variable with
influence on the sectors of the entire Coast and Sierra Peruana as
well as the Selva Norte and Selva Sul of Peru; the Zonal Wind
variable at low levels (850 hPa) with influence in sectors of the
North Coast and the entire Sierra do Peru; and Zonal Wind (200
hPa) at high levels (VZ200) with influence on the North Coast,
South Coast, and the entire Sierra del Peru. As the oceanic
variable (SST) was identified as the predominant predictor for
precipitation over Peru, this variable was combined with other
atmospheric variables (AG850, VZ850 and PNM), with the highest
predictive ability indices for the Sierra Sul sector obtained
through the combination of SST and VZ850, while the combinations
of SST and PNM, and SST and AG850 showed the highest values for
the Sierra Norte sector. By combining the two atmospheric
variables (PNM, VZ850 and PNM, AG850) that stood out with the best
performance with the oceanic variable (SST), results similar to
those obtained through the previous combinations were found in the
different sectors of Peru. Therefore, for the production of
statistical seasonal forecasts of precipitation for DJF over Peru,
it is recommended to combine the SST with at least one atmospheric
variable to contemplate the physical mechanisms of the coupled
climate system that modulate the climate variability of seasonal
precipitation.",
committee = "Pezzi, Luciano Ponzi (presidente) and Coelho, Caio Augusto dos
Santos (orientador) and Vasconcelos Junior, Francisco das Chagas",
englishtitle = "Seasonal precipitation forecast for Peru with statistical
approach",
language = "pt",
pages = "89",
ibi = "8JMKD3MGP3W34T/47N3QDB",
url = "http://urlib.net/ibi/8JMKD3MGP3W34T/47N3QDB",
targetfile = "publicacao.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "04 maio 2024"
}