@Article{DantasSanSanMarAlv:2022:FuChTe,
               author = "Dantas, Leydson G. and Santos, Carlos A. C. dos and Santos, Celso 
                         A. G. and Martins, Eduardo S. P. R. and Alves, Lincoln Muniz",
          affiliation = "{Universidade Federal de Campina Grande (UFCG)} and {Universidade 
                         Federal de Campina Grande (UFCG)} and {Universidade Federal da 
                         Para{\'{\i}}ba (UFPB)} and {} and {Instituto Nacional de 
                         Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "Future Changes in Temperature and Precipitation over Northeastern 
                         Brazil by CMIP6 Model",
              journal = "Water (Switzerland)",
                 year = "2022",
               volume = "14",
               number = "24",
                pages = "e4118",
                month = "Dec.",
             keywords = "climate change, climate model, Northeast Brazil, projections, 
                         South America, SSPs.",
             abstract = "Global warming is causing an intensification of extreme climate 
                         events with significant changes in frequency, duration, and 
                         intensity over many regions. Understanding the current and future 
                         influence of this warming in northeastern Brazil (NEB) is 
                         important due to the regions greater vulnerability to natural 
                         disasters, as historical records show. In this paper, 
                         characteristics of climate change projections (precipitation and 
                         air temperature) over NEB are analyzed using 15 models of Coupled 
                         Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under four Shared 
                         Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and 
                         SSP5-8.5) scenarios. By using the Taylor diagram, we observed that 
                         the HadGEM3-GC31-MM model simulates the seasonal behavior of 
                         climate variables more efficiently. Projections for NEB indicate 
                         an irreversible increase in average air temperature of at least 1 
                         °C throughout the 21st century, with a reduction of up to 30% in 
                         annual rainfall, as present in scenarios of regional rivalry 
                         (SSP3-7.0) and high emissions (SSP5-8.5). This means that a higher 
                         concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) will increase air 
                         temperature, evaporation, and evapotranspiration, reducing 
                         rainfall and increasing drought events. The results obtained in 
                         this work are essential for the elaboration of effective 
                         strategies for adapting to and mitigating climate change for the 
                         NEB.",
                  doi = "10.3390/w14244118",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w14244118",
                 issn = "2073-4441",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "water-14-04118-v3.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "30 abr. 2024"
}