@PhDThesis{Lopes:2024:SuHíSo,
author = "Lopes, Lucas Garofolo",
title = "Sustentabilidade h{\'{\i}}drica sob cen{\'a}rios de
mudan{\c{c}}as clim{\'a}ticas, restaura{\c{c}}{\~a}o florestal
e de demanda de {\'a}gua em sistemas h{\'{\i}}dricos no Sudeste
brasileiro",
school = "Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)",
year = "2024",
address = "S{\~a}o Jos{\'e} dos Campos",
month = "2023-09-12",
keywords = "sustentabilidade h{\'{\i}}drica, mudan{\c{c}}as
clim{\'a}ticas, restaura{\c{c}}{\~a}o florestal, water
sustainability, climate change, forest restoration.",
abstract = "O presente trabalho visa a an{\'a}lise de cen{\'a}rios
potenciais de recupera{\c{c}}{\~a}o da Mata Atl{\^a}ntica e
seus efeitos para o planejamento de longo prazo em sistemas
h{\'{\i}}dricos no Sudeste Brasileiro, em espec{\'{\i}}fico
nas bacias do rio Para{\'{\i}}ba do Sul, rio Grande e rio Doce.
A regi{\~a}o Sudeste do Brasil {\'e} uma das regi{\~o}es mais
importantes no contexto nacional e ultimamente tem ocorrido
diversos tipos de eventos extremos, como inunda{\c{c}}{\~o}es e
secas. A fim de estudar os efeitos da restaura{\c{c}}{\~a}o
florestal sob impactos das mudan{\c{c}}as clim{\'a}ticas foram
propostos tr{\^e}s experimentos utilizando como
condi{\c{c}}{\~o}es de contorno dados do modelo global CanESM2
sob cen{\'a}rio de mudan{\c{c}}as clim{\'a}ticas RCP 8.5: uma
integra{\c{c}}{\~a}o hist{\'o}rica utilizando um mapa base -
Base, uma integra{\c{c}}{\~a}o futura utilizando um mapa base
{{}} Vegeta{\c{c}}{\~a}o Controle e uma integra{\c{c}}{\~a}o
futuro utilizando o mapa base com a inclus{\~a}o da mancha de
restaura{\c{c}}{\~a}o da Mata Atl{\^a}ntica {{}}
Reflorestamento. As integra{\c{c}}{\~o}es foram realizadas
atrav{\'e}s do modelo regional Eta/Noah-MP utilizando uma
abordagem de blocos para representar a vegeta{\c{c}}{\~a}o e 8
camadas de solo. Os resultados da integra{\c{c}}{\~a}o regional
foram utilizados num modelo de roteamento de canais a fim de
analisar os impactos nas vaz{\~o}es. Al{\'e}m disso, foi
proposto uma an{\'a}lise da sustentabilidade h{\'{\i}}drica
atrav{\'e}s de tr{\^e}s {\'{\i}}ndices: Water Exploitation
Index, Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index e
Sustainability Index. Em rela{\c{c}}{\~a}o {\`a}s
proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es futuras, as mudan{\c{c}}as clim{\'a}ticas
geram um incremento de at{\'e} 9 oC na m{\'e}dia mensal de
temperatura e uma redu{\c{c}}{\~a}o de at{\'e} 1000 mm na
precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o anual, principalmente na regi{\~a}o
Sudeste. O experimento Reflorestamento apresentou temperaturas de
at{\'e} 2 oC menores e sem grandes impactos na
precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o em rela{\c{c}}{\~a}o ao experimento
Vegeta{\c{c}}{\~a}o Controle. A diminui{\c{c}}{\~a}o da
precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o futura nas duas proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es
ocasionou uma diminui{\c{c}}{\~a}o tamb{\'e}m das vaz{\~o}es
em todas as bacias estudadas. O experimento Reflorestamento
proporciona vaz{\~o}es ainda menores devido ao aumento da
evapotranspira{\c{c}}{\~a}o, principalmente no que tange as
vaz{\~o}es m{\'a}ximas. Em rela{\c{c}}{\~a}o aos
{\'{\i}}ndices estudados, a diminui{\c{c}}{\~a}o da quantidade
de {\'a}gua sob impactos das mudan{\c{c}}as clim{\'a}ticas gera
impactos nos {\'{\i}}ndices de sustentabilidade, apontando
defici{\^e}ncias nos sistemas h{\'{\i}}dricos da regi{\~a}o
Sudeste. O estudo sugere que h{\'a} limiares em que o
reflorestamento acarrete impactos e, em alguns casos, esses
limiares podem ser ben{\'e}ficos, tanto em rela{\c{c}}{\~a}o ao
arrefecimento dos extremos clim{\'a}ticos, como xii altas
temperaturas e eventos de cheias, como manter a sustentabilidade
h{\'{\i}}drica dos sistemas. ABSTRACT: The present work aims to
analyze potential recovery scenarios for the Atlantic Forest and
its effects on long-term planning in water systems in Southeastern
Brazil, specifically in the Para{\'{\i}}ba do Sul, Rio Grande
and Doce river basins. The Southeast region of Brazil is one of
the most important regions in the national context and recently
there have been several types of extreme events, such as floods
and droughts. In order to study the effects of forest restoration
under the impacts of climate change, three experiments were
proposed using data from the CanESM2 global model as boundary
conditions under the RCP 8.5 climate change scenario: a historical
integration using a base map - Base, a future integration using a
base map {{}} Vegetation Control and a future integration using
the base map with the inclusion of the Atlantic Forest restoration
patch {{}} Reforestation. Integrations were performed using the
Eta/Noah-MP regional model using a block approach to represent
vegetation and 8 soil layers. The results of regional integration
were used in a channel routing model in order to analyze the
impacts on flows. Furthermore, an analysis of water sustainability
was proposed using three indices: Water Exploitation Index,
Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index and
Sustainability Index. In relation to future projections, climate
change generates an increase of up to 9 oC in the monthly average
temperature and a reduction of up to 1000 mm in annual
precipitation, mainly in the Southeast region. The Reforestation
experiment presented temperatures up to 2 oC lower and without
major impacts on precipitation compared to the Control Vegetation
experiment. The decrease in future precipitation in both
projections also caused a decrease in flows in all basins studied.
The Reforestation experiment provides even lower flows due to the
increase in evapotranspiration, especially regarding maximum
flows. In relation to the indices studied, the decrease in the
amount of water under the impacts of climate change generates
impacts on sustainability indices, pointing out deficiencies in
the water systems of the Southeast region. The study suggests that
there are thresholds at which reforestation causes impacts and, in
some cases, these xiv thresholds can be beneficial, both in
relation to cooling climate extremes, such as high temperatures
and flood events, and maintaining the water sustainability of
systems.",
committee = "Randow, Celso von (presidente) and Rodriguez, Daniel Andres
(orientador) and Domingues, Isabel Lopes Pilotto (orientadora) and
Chan, Chou Sin and Mour{\~a}o, Caroline Estephanie Ferraz and
Azevedo, Jos{\'e} Paulo Soares de",
englishtitle = "Water sustainability under scenarios of climate change, forest
restoration and water demand in water systems in Southeastern
Brazil",
language = "pt",
pages = "138",
ibi = "8JMKD3MGP3W34T/49S3K9S",
url = "http://urlib.net/ibi/8JMKD3MGP3W34T/49S3K9S",
targetfile = "publicacao.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "12 maio 2024"
}