@Article{DiasMartMart:2024:ClRiVu,
               author = "Dias, C{\'a}ssia Gabriele and Martins, Fabrina Bolzan and 
                         Martins, Minella Alves",
          affiliation = "{Universidade Federal de Itajub{\'a} (UNIFEI)} and {Universidade 
                         Federal de Itajub{\'a} (UNIFEI)} and {Instituto Nacional de 
                         Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "Climate risks and vulnerabilities of the Arabica coffee in Brazil 
                         under current and future climates considering new CMIP6 models",
              journal = "Science of the Total Environment",
                 year = "2024",
               volume = "907",
                pages = "e167753",
                month = "Jan.",
             keywords = "Adaptation measures, Coffea arabica L., Coffee diseases, Coffee 
                         pests, NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, Risk indicators.",
             abstract = "The susceptibility to climate change concerns the coffee market 
                         worldwide due to possible severe productivity losses. Brazil is 
                         the world's largest Arabica coffee producer and has crops in 
                         regions considered persistent climate change hotspots. Our study 
                         analyzed risks, vulnerabilities, and susceptibilities to pests and 
                         diseases in these regions under current and future climates and 
                         outlined adaptive measures to reduce future vulnerabilities. Ten 
                         risk indicators based on Arabica coffee requirements were 
                         proposed: water supply (Iw), base (TIB) and maximum temperature 
                         stresses (TImax), which delimit the temperature range where 
                         Arabica coffee grows and productivity is penalized outside both 
                         ranges, frost stress (TIfrost), diseases such as rust (DIrust), 
                         brown eye spot (DIbrown), and Phoma leaf spot (DIphoma), pests 
                         such as coffee berry borer (PIberry), coffee leaf miner (PIminer), 
                         and yield loss due to water stress (Iyg). Daily near-surface air 
                         temperature (minimum, mean, and maximum), relative humidity, 
                         precipitation, and global solar radiation were used from 16 
                         General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the NASA Earth Exchange 
                         Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP), which are derived 
                         from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in 
                         three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios (SSP245, SSP370 and 
                         SSP585). All risk indicators were calculated for the current 
                         climate (19952014) and projected for the near (20412060), 
                         intermediate (20612080), and far future (20812100) in three SSPs 
                         and then classified into five risk classes (very low, low, 
                         moderate, high and very high). Our results indicated that due to 
                         increases in TImax and Iyg indicators, with high to very high risk 
                         in area and magnitude, Arabica coffee plantations will be 
                         negatively affected and economically unfeasible for about 35 % to 
                         75 % of the studied area throughout the 21st century. Furthermore, 
                         the rust and the leaf miner will remain a concern in future 
                         climates due to increased temperatures and reduced relative 
                         humidity. The future of Arabica coffee crops in Brazil will depend 
                         on adopting effective adaptive measures and prudent agricultural 
                         strategies to address anticipated risks, including shifting crops 
                         to higher altitude areas, introducing more climate-resilient 
                         coffee cultivars/varieties, using agroforestry or intercropping 
                         systems, planting in closer spacing or higher density planting, 
                         and employing dripper or partial root-zone irrigation 
                         techniques.",
                  doi = "10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167753",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167753",
                 issn = "0048-9697",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "1-s2.0-S0048969723063805-main.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "02 maio 2024"
}