@InProceedings{MantovaniHQVARPCFFCBGSSGRL:2024:EvMPMo,
author = "Mantovani, Jos{\'e} Antonio and Herdies, Dirceu Luis and Quadro,
Mario Leal de and Vendrasco, {\'E}der Paulo and Arav{\'e}quia,
Jos{\'e} Antonio and Ramirez, Enver Manuel Amador and Pendharkar,
Jayant and Coelho, William Ferreira and Figueroa, Silvio Nilo and
Fernandez, Julio Pablo Reyes and Calvetti, Leonardo and Beneti,
Cesar and Gomes, Helber and Silva, Maria Cristina Lemos and Silva,
Fabricio Daniel dos Santos and Gomes, Heliof{\'a}bio Barros and
Roberti, Debora and Lyra, Matheus Jos{\'e} Arruda",
affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto
Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Federal de
Santa Catarina (IFSC)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas
Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais
(INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and
{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto
Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de
Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas
Espaciais (INPE)} and {Universidade Federal de Pelotas (UFPel)}
and SIMEPAR and {Universidade Federal de Alagoas (UFAL)} and
{Universidade Federal de Alagoas (UFAL)} and {Universidade Federal
de Alagoas (UFAL)} and {Universidade Federal de Alagoas (UFAL)}
and {Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM)} and {Universidade
Federal de Alagoas (UFAL)}",
title = "Evaluation of the MPAS Model for the Reproduction of an Extreme
Precipitation Event over the North Coast of the State of S{\~a}o
Paulo - Brazil",
booktitle = "Proceedings...",
year = "2024",
organization = "American Meteorologial Society Annual Meeting, 104.",
publisher = "AMS",
abstract = "The southeastern region of Brazil has experienced an increase in
extreme precipitation events, with more than a thousand events
occurring between 2015 and 2020. Several studies have shown an
increase in the frequency and intensity of these events,
triggering natural hazards with catastrophic consequences. This is
related to the location of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone and
deep convection associated with low-level anticyclonic
circulations. In addition, blocking systems, cold frontal
passages, orographic lift and local convective instability are the
main rain producing systems near the coast with heavy and
persistent rain. The last event occurred on February 18-19, 2023,
on the coast of S{\~a}o Paulo State and became the highest
rainfall event in the history of Brazil, when almost 700 mm of
rain were recorded in less than 24 hours on the North Coast of
S{\~a}o Paulo, causing several damages and dozens of deaths (65)
in the region. Given the impact and recurrence of these events,
the need for accurate numerical weather prediction (NWP) models
became critical to assist decision makers and governments in
planning effective actions to avoid or mitigate catastrophic
consequences. Several studies have highlighted the challenges of
accurately predicting rainfall intensity and location, the
dependence on appropriate initial conditions, the importance of
microphysical schemes, and the appropriate choice of
parameterizations. Our main objective was to apply the Model for
Prediction Across Scales Atmosphere (MPAS) model with a
variable-resolution mesh under convection-permitting resolution to
perform the simulation for the extreme rainfall event over the
north coast of S{\~a}o Paulo. A 60-3 km variable resolution mesh
with refinement centered on the city of S{\~a}o Sebasti{\~a}o
was configured. Model simulations were driven by GDAS/FNL analysis
and ERA5 reanalysis to investigate sensitivity to initial
conditions. Gridded data from MERGE for daily accumulated
precipitation were used to evaluate the simulated daily
accumulated precipitation. Data from CEMADEN automatic rain gauges
distributed over the coast of S{\~a}o Paulo are also used for
precipitation evaluation, while INMET automatic weather stations
provide weather variables over Brazil for general evaluation. The
ERA5-driven simulation showed more precipitation activity on the
north coast according to the simulated radar reflectivity compared
to the GDAS/FNL-driven simulations. The bias computed with MERGE
data as reference shows a general underestimation for all model
runs over the main region. The comparison of simulated hourly
precipitation with CEMADEN rain gauge data showed in general a
better representation of the observed precipitation by the
ERA5-driven simulation, but all simulations were not able to
reproduce the precipitation intensity and timing exactly. Three
microphysical schemes were also tested: Thompson
(convection-permitting suit), WSM6, and Kessler. The results show
similar performance in reproducing weather variables, especially
for Thompson and WSM6, with slightly better results for the WSM6
run. All simulations predicted rainfall in excess of 250 mm/day in
the most affected area. These preliminary results provide valuable
information on the performance of MPAS, and the evaluation needs
to be extended to other physical parameterizations and model
configurations.",
conference-location = "Baltimore, MD",
conference-year = "28 jan. - 01 feb. 2024",
language = "en",
urlaccessdate = "30 abr. 2024"
}