@Article{BrachtOlKrGoMeLa:2024:UnUn,
               author = "Bracht, Matheus K. and Olinger, Marcelo S. and Krelling, Amanda F. 
                         and Gon{\c{c}}alves, Andr{\'e} Rodrigues and Melo, Ana Paula and 
                         Lamberts, Roberto",
          affiliation = "{Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina (UFSC)} and {Universidade 
                         Federal de Santa Catarina (UFSC)} and {Universidade Federal de 
                         Santa Catarina (UFSC)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas 
                         Espaciais (INPE)} and {Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina 
                         (UFSC)} and {Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina (UFSC)}",
                title = "Multiple regional climate model projections to assess building 
                         thermal performance in Brazil: Understanding the uncertainty",
              journal = "Journal of Building Engineering",
                 year = "2024",
               volume = "88",
                pages = "e109248",
                month = "July",
             keywords = "Building energy simulation, Climate change, Future weather 
                         files.",
             abstract = "Understanding the trends and uncertainties in Building Energy 
                         Simulation (BES) performance indicators under future climate 
                         conditions is crucial for mitigating issues such as overheating 
                         and power outages. To address this, we generated a set of weather 
                         files for all 27 state capitals in Brazil, considering six climate 
                         model projections (three General Circulation Models as driving 
                         models and two nested Regional Climate Models) and two distinct 
                         emission scenarios from the CORDEX project. We analyzed the 
                         variability in climatic variables and subsequently performed BES 
                         on a representative Brazilian social housing unit to evaluate its 
                         impact on the performance indicators outcomes. Consistent with 
                         previous studies, a substantial increase in cooling-related 
                         demands was observed in the more pessimistic scenario (RCP8.5) and 
                         mild increases in the more optimistic scenario (RCP2.6), with a 
                         trend toward stabilization after 2050. Regarding uncertainties, we 
                         found higher Relative Standard Deviation (RSD) values for the 
                         cooling degree hours indicator. The capitals in the Central-West, 
                         Southeast, and South regions exhibited greater uncertainty 
                         regarding temperature indicators, whereas the irradiation 
                         parameters displayed higher uncertainties in the Northeast region. 
                         For the BES outcomes, RSD values as high as 19.9% were found for 
                         cooling load values. It was also demonstrated that locations, 
                         periods, and scenarios exhibit different extreme climate model 
                         projections. Ideally, employing an ensemble of weather files 
                         developed from other models would help assess associated 
                         uncertainties in the building performance indicators.",
                  doi = "10.1016/j.jobe.2024.109248",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jobe.2024.109248",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "1-s2.0-S2352710224008167-main.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "03 maio 2024"
}