@Article{FonsecaVeCoBrQuLyCh:2014:PrExCh,
               author = "Fonseca, Paula Andrea M. and Veiga, Jos{\'e} Augusto P. and 
                         Correia, Francis Wagner S. and Brito, Adriane L. and Queiroz, 
                         M{\^o}nica R. and Lyra, Andr{\'e} de Arruda and Chou, Sin Chan",
          affiliation = "Institute for Amazonia Research (INPA) and Amazonas State 
                         University, Manaus and Institute of Technology, Amazonas State 
                         University, Manaus and Institute of Technology, Amazonas State 
                         University, Manaus and Institute of Technology, Amazonas State 
                         University, Manaus and UNINORTE Laureate International 
                         Universities, Manaus and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas 
                         Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais 
                         (INPE)}",
                title = "Projecting Extreme Changes in Summer Rainfall in South America by 
                         the Middle of the 21st Century",
              journal = "Atmospheric and Climate Sciences",
                 year = "2014",
               volume = "4",
                pages = "743--756",
                month = "oct. 2014",
             keywords = "Climate Change, Extreme Events, Amazon, South America.",
             abstract = "Extreme rainfall events can be considered a natural manifestation 
                         of the environment in which they are embedded and foreknowledge 
                         about their future behavior is very important, especially for 
                         decision makers. In this context, we aimed to explore the future 
                         behavior of extreme rainfall intensity through numerical 
                         simulations with the ETA model. The model was forced with a 
                         scenario of high greenhouse gas emissions for the middle of the 
                         21st Century as described for A1B emission scenario. We detailed 
                         the main changes in accumulated rainfall produced by heavy events, 
                         very heavy events and rare events over a broad area of South 
                         America with a focus on the tropical sector. The methodology 
                         applied here is capable of separating extreme events and 
                         establishing the quantity of rainfall yielded by them. We have 
                         found that in the near future (2041-2050) rare events will tend to 
                         increase over the Amazon basin, followed by reductions in heavy 
                         and very heavy events. Conversely, heavy, very heavy and rare 
                         events are expected to decline over northeast Brazil. Furthermore, 
                         increases were found for heavy, very heavy and rare events over 
                         southern Brazil.",
                  doi = "10.4236/acs.2014.44067",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/acs.2014.44067",
                 issn = "2160-0414",
                label = "lattes: 4336175279058172 7 MFonsecaPVSCBrQuLyCh:2014:PrExCh",
             language = "en",
        urlaccessdate = "28 abr. 2024"
}