@Article{CoelhoFirpAndr:2018:VeFrSo,
author = "Coelho, Caio Augusto dos Santos and Firpo, M{\'a}ri Andrea
Feldman and Andrade, Felipe Marques de",
affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto
Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de
Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
title = "A verification framework for South American sub-seasonal
precipitation predictions",
journal = "Meteorologische Zeitschrift",
year = "2018",
volume = "27",
number = "6",
pages = "503--520",
keywords = "sub-seasonal prediction, verification precipitation, South
America.",
abstract = "This paper proposes a verification framework for South American
sub-seasonal (weekly accumulated) precipitation predictions
produced one to four weeks in advance. The framework assesses both
hindcast and near real time forecast quality focusing on a
selection of attributes (association, accuracy, discrimination,
reliability and resolution). These attributes are measured using
deterministic and probabilistic scores. Such an attribute-based
framework allows the production of verification information in
three levels according to the availability of sub-seasonal
hindcasts and near real time forecasts samples. The framework is
useful for supporting future routine sub-seasonal prediction
practice by helping forecasters to identify model forecast merits
and deficiencies and regions where to trust the model guidance
information. The three information levels are defined according to
the verification sampling strategy and are referred to as target
week hindcast verification, all season hindcast verification, all
season near real time forecast verification. The framework is
illustrated using ECMWF sub-seasonal precipitation predictions.
For the investigated period (austral autumn), reasonable
accordance was identified between hindcasts and near real time
forecast quality across the three levels. Sub-seasonal
precipitation predictions produced one to two weeks in advance
presented better performance than those produced three to four
weeks in advance. The northeast region of Brazil presented
favorable sub-seasonal precipitation prediction performance,
particularly in terms of association, accuracy and discrimination
attributes. This region was identified as a region where
sub-seasonal precipitation predictions produced one to four weeks
in advance are most likely to be successful in South America. When
aggregating all predictions over the South American continent the
probabilistic assessment showed modest discrimination ability,
with predictions clearly requiring calibration for improving
reliability and possibly combination with predictions produced by
other models for improving resolution. The proposed framework is
also useful for providing feedback to model developers in
identifying strengths and weaknesses for future sub-seasonal
predictions systems improvements.",
doi = "10.1127/metz/2018/0898",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1127/metz/2018/0898",
issn = "0941-2948",
label = "lattes: 4978912302419377 1 CoelhoFirpAndr:2018:VeFrSo",
language = "en",
targetfile = "coelho_verification.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "01 maio 2024"
}