@Article{BenderFreiMach:2019:ImFuUr,
author = "Bender, Andr{\'e}ia and Freitas, Edmilson Dias and Machado, Luiz
Augusto Toledo",
affiliation = "{Universidade de S{\~a}o Paulo (USP)} and {Universidade de
S{\~a}o Paulo (USP)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas
Espaciais (INPE)}",
title = "The impact of future urban scenarios on a severe weather case in
the metropolitan area of S{\~a}o Paulo",
journal = "Climatic Change",
year = "2019",
volume = "156",
pages = "471--488",
abstract = "In this work, convective parameters are applied, based on
numerical simulations made with Brazilian Regional Atmospheric
Modeling System (BRAMS) model, to a severe weather case which
occurred in the metropolitan area of S{\~a}o Paulo (MASP).
Scenarios of future urban area growth and increase of building
heights were made to evaluate changes in convective parameters and
rainfall for the study region. Using factorial planning and factor
separation methods, we found that the urban area growth predicted
for 2030 is capable of increasing the amount of precipitation,
mainly due to the land use change from rural to urban. In the
scenario of building heights increasing, it was found a tendency
for rainfall suppression. The urban area for 2030 is the major
factor contributing to increasing atmospheric instability and wind
shear. Vertical urban growth causes an increase in atmospheric
instability and a decrease in wind shear. The interaction between
urban area and building height factors increases the amount of
precipitation and storm motion over the MASP.",
doi = "10.1007/s10584-019-02527-1",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02527-1",
issn = "0165-0009",
label = "lattes: 5379515759830546 3 BenderFreiMach:2019:ImFuUr",
language = "en",
targetfile = "bender_impact.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "28 mar. 2024"
}