@Article{CavalcanteDuarOmet:2020:UnFuCl,
               author = "Cavalcante, Arn{\'o}bio de Mendon{\c{c}}a Barreto and Duarte, 
                         Aryberg de Souza and Ometto, Jean Pierre Henry Balbaud",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de 
                         Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "Modeling the potential distribution of Epiphyllum phyllanthus (L.) 
                         Haw. under future climate scenarios in the Caatinga biome",
              journal = "Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ci{\^e}ncias",
                 year = "2020",
               volume = "92",
               number = "2",
                pages = "e20180836",
             keywords = "Mudan{\c{c}}as Clim{\'a}ticas, Caatinga, Cacto, Cactaceae, 
                         climate change, conservation, epiphytic cactus, maxent.",
             abstract = "The climate change projections for the Caatinga biome this century 
                         are for an increase in temperature and reduction in rainfall, 
                         leading to aridization and plant cover dominated by Cactaceae. The 
                         objective of this study was to model the potential distribution of 
                         Epiphyllum phyllanthus (L.) Haw., a cactus that is native to the 
                         Caatinga biome, considering two possible future climate scenarios, 
                         to assess this species spatiotemporal response to these climate 
                         change, and thus to evaluate the need or not for conservation 
                         measures. For this purpose, we obtained biogeographic information 
                         on the target species from biodiversity databases, choosing nine 
                         environmental variables and applying the MaxEnt algorithm. We 
                         considered the time intervals 2041-2060 and 2061-2080, centered on 
                         2050 and 2070, respectively, and the greenhouse gas scenarios 
                         RCP4.5 and 8.5. For all the scenarios considered, the models 
                         generated for 2050 and 2070 projected drastic contraction (greater 
                         than 80%) for the areas of potential occurrence of the species in 
                         relation to the present potential. The remaining areas were found 
                         to be concentrated in the northern portion of the biome, 
                         specifically in the northern part of the state of Cear{\'a}, 
                         which has particular characteristics.",
                  doi = "10.1590/0001-3765202020180836",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0001-3765202020180836",
                 issn = "0001-3765",
                label = "lattes: 7282660743064601 1 CavalcanteDuarOmet:2020:UnFuCl",
             language = "en",
        urlaccessdate = "12 maio 2024"
}