1. Identificação | |
Tipo de Referência | Artigo em Evento (Conference Proceedings) |
Site | mtc-m16b.sid.inpe.br |
Código do Detentor | isadg {BR SPINPE} ibi 8JMKD3MGPCW/3DT298S |
Repositório | cptec.inpe.br/adm_conf/2005/10.30.04.13 |
Última Atualização | 2006:04.16.17.28.34 (UTC) administrator |
Repositório de Metadados | cptec.inpe.br/adm_conf/2005/10.30.04.13.37 |
Última Atualização dos Metadados | 2021:02.10.19.01.54 (UTC) administrator |
Chave Secundária | INPE-13836-PRE/9018 |
Chave de Citação | HeldGomeNasc:2006:InTo |
Título | Forecasting a severe weather occurrence in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, on 24 may 2005: the Indaiatuba tornado |
Formato | CD-ROM; On-line. |
Ano | 2006 |
Data de Acesso | 19 abr. 2024 |
Tipo Secundário | PRE CI |
Número de Arquivos | 1 |
Tamanho | 679 KiB |
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2. Contextualização | |
Autor | 1 Held, Gerhard 2 Gomes, Jorge Luis 3 Nascimento, Ernani de Lima |
Grupo | 1 2 DMD-INPE-MCT-BR |
Afiliação | 1 Instituto de Pesquisas Meteorológicas, Universidade Estadual Paulista 2 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) 3 Instituto Tecnológico SIMEPAR, Universidade Federal do Paraná |
Endereço de e-Mail do Autor | 1 gerhard@ipmet.unesp.br |
Editor | Vera, Carolina Nobre, Carlos |
Endereço de e-Mail | gerhard@ipmet.unesp.br |
Nome do Evento | International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography, 8 (ICSHMO). |
Localização do Evento | Foz do Iguaçu |
Data | 24-28 Apr. 2006 |
Editora (Publisher) | American Meteorological Society (AMS) |
Cidade da Editora | 45 Beacon Hill Road, Boston, MA, USA |
Páginas | 1799-1807 |
Título do Livro | Proceedings |
Tipo Terciário | Poster |
Organização | American Meteorological Society (AMS) |
Histórico (UTC) | 2005-10-30 04:13:37 :: gerhard@ipmet.unesp.br -> administrator :: 2005-11-11 21:53:43 :: administrator -> adm_conf :: 2005-12-15 16:31:01 :: adm_conf -> gerhard@ipmet.unesp.br :: 2006-04-04 14:39:40 :: gerhard@ipmet.unesp.br -> administrator :: 2006-04-18 21:03:36 :: administrator -> lise@dpi.inpe.br :: 2010-12-28 12:36:31 :: lise@dpi.inpe.br -> administrator :: 2010-12-29 15:56:46 :: administrator -> lise@dpi.inpe.br :: 2006 2010-12-29 16:05:53 :: lise@dpi.inpe.br -> administrator :: 2006 2010-12-29 18:52:34 :: administrator -> banon :: 2006 2011-01-02 17:14:53 :: banon -> administrator :: 2006 2021-02-10 19:01:54 :: administrator -> :: 2006 |
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3. Conteúdo e estrutura | |
É a matriz ou uma cópia? | é a matriz |
Estágio do Conteúdo | concluido |
Transferível | 1 |
Palavras-Chave | weather forecast severe storms Regional ETA Model Meso-ETA Model tornadoes State of Sao Paulo Brazil |
Resumo | The synoptic pattern over the State of São Paulo on 24 May 2005 displayed characteristics often associated with classic mid-latitude severe weather outbreaks. Severe convective storms developed ahead of a migratory baroclinic system, clearly shown as a 500 hPa trough, where synoptic-scale upward motion was favored. Thus, large-scale destabilization occurred over the State of São Paulo that afternoon. In fact, the operational ETA-CPTEC 6-hr forecast sounding for the nearest gridpoint to the tornado occurrence displayed a relatively high surface-based convective available potential energy (CAPE) of 1700 J.kg-1. Upper-level divergence was predicted over most of the State of São Paulo that afternoon, with diffluent flow over the eastern sections of the State. This upper-level pattern provided further support for strong deep convection. Since the resolution of the Regional ETA model, disseminated operationally by the Centro de Previsão do Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC/INPE), is 40x40 km, the Instituto de Pesquisas Meteorológicas (IPMet/UNESP), in collaboration with CPTEC, also runs twice daily (00 and 12 UT) the Meso-ETA model, with its domain centered over Bauru. This model is initiated with the Regional ETA model and the resolution is 10x10km, with outputs every 3 hours. Almost 48 hours ahead (initiated on 22 May 2005, 21:00 LT), it already predicted the likely occurrence of an extremely severe storm event in the Campinas region, where ultimately an F3 (Fujita scale) tornado was observed. The most important predictants for this day were: low-level (850 hPa) humidity convergence, divergence at 300 hPa, Omega at 500 and 300 hPa, K-index, as well as the CAPE calculated for Indaiatuba. The 3-hourly accumulated rainfall was also predicted well in terms of onset and area, as compared to the accumulated radar rainfall. Vertical profiles, simulating radio soundings, were calculated for Bauru and Indaiatuba, which are about 200 km apart. The CAPE for Indaiatuba (1313 J/kg) was predicted to be about four times greater than that for Bauru (322 J/kg). Thus, based on the operationally available Regional ETA-CPTEC model, the predicted severe weather parameters (6 hours) did display some skill in highlighting the existence of a pre-storm environment that was favorable for significant severe weather development in the Indaiatuba region for the afternoon of 24 May 2005. However, a very good indication of the severe weather environment, in which the tornadic supercell developed, was provided by the Meso-ETA model (IPMet/CPTEC) at least 48 hours ahead, as will be demonstrated in the paper. N.B.: This paper goes together with "THE STRUCTURE OF THREE TORNADO-GENERATING STORMS BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR AND LIGHTNING OBSERVATIONS IN THE STATE OF SÃO PAULO, BRAZIL" (ID=10.30.03.50). |
Área | MET |
Tipo | Weather analysis and forecasting |
Arranjo | urlib.net > BDMCI > Fonds > Produção anterior à 2021 > DIDMD > Forecasting a severe... |
Conteúdo da Pasta doc | acessar |
Conteúdo da Pasta source | SHMO_Model_Final.doc | 04/04/2006 11:39 | 917.5 KiB | |
Conteúdo da Pasta agreement | não têm arquivos |
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4. Condições de acesso e uso | |
URL dos dados | http://urlib.net/ibi/cptec.inpe.br/adm_conf/2005/10.30.04.13 |
URL dos dados zipados | http://urlib.net/zip/cptec.inpe.br/adm_conf/2005/10.30.04.13 |
Idioma | en |
Arquivo Alvo | 1799-1808.pdf |
Grupo de Usuários | administrator gerhard@ipmet.unesp.br administrator banon |
Visibilidade | shown |
Detentor da Cópia | SID/SCD |
Permissão de Leitura | allow from all |
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5. Fontes relacionadas | |
Unidades Imediatamente Superiores | 8JMKD3MGPCW/43SKC35 |
Acervo Hospedeiro | cptec.inpe.br/nobre/2005/06.02.21.14 cptec.inpe.br/walmeida/2003/04.25.17.12 |
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6. Notas | |
Nota | 1 |
Campos Vazios | archivingpolicy archivist callnumber contenttype copyright creatorhistory descriptionlevel dissemination documentstage doi edition identifier isbn issn label lineage mirrorrepository nextedition notes numberofvolumes orcid parameterlist parentrepositories previousedition previouslowerunit progress project readergroup resumeid rightsholder schedulinginformation secondarydate secondarymark serieseditor session shorttitle sponsor subject tertiarymark url versiontype volume |
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