1. Identificação | |
Tipo de Referência | Artigo em Revista Científica (Journal Article) |
Site | mtc-m16c.sid.inpe.br |
Código do Detentor | isadg {BR SPINPE} ibi 8JMKD3MGPCW/3DT298S |
Identificador | 8JMKD3MGP8W/343G8UL |
Repositório | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m18@80/2008/10.16.14.00 |
Última Atualização | 2009:04.23.11.44.36 (UTC) administrator |
Repositório de Metadados | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m18@80/2008/10.16.14.00.51 |
Última Atualização dos Metadados | 2021:01.02.22.16.19 (UTC) administrator |
Chave Secundária | INPE--PRE/ |
DOI | 10.1175/2007WAF2006116.1 |
ISSN | 0882-8156 |
Chave de Citação | StephensonCoelJoll:2008:TwExCo |
Título | Two extra components in the Brier Score Decomposition |
Ano | 2008 |
Mês | Aug |
Data de Acesso | 18 abr. 2024 |
Tipo Secundário | PRE PI |
Número de Arquivos | 3 |
Tamanho | 616 KiB |
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2. Contextualização | |
Autor | 1 Stephenson, D. B. 2 Coelho, C. A. S. 3 Jolliffe, I. T. |
Grupo | 1 2 DOP-CPT-INPE-MCT-BR |
Afiliação | 1 School of Engineering, Computing, and Mathematics, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom 2 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE/CPTEC) 3 School of Engineering, Computing, and Mathematics, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom |
Endereço de e-Mail | deicy@cptec.inpe.br |
Revista | Weather and Forecasting |
Volume | 23 |
Número | 4 |
Páginas | 752-757 |
Histórico (UTC) | 2009-04-23 11:44:36 :: deicy -> administrator :: 2021-01-02 22:16:19 :: administrator -> marciana :: 2008 |
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3. Conteúdo e estrutura | |
É a matriz ou uma cópia? | é a matriz |
Estágio do Conteúdo | concluido |
Transferível | 1 |
Tipo do Conteúdo | External Contribution |
Palavras-Chave | probabilistic forecasts reliability systems |
Resumo | The Brier score is widely used for the verification of probability forecasts. It also forms the basis of other frequently used probability scores such as the rank probability score. By conditioning (stratifying) on the issued forecast probabilities, the Brier score can be decomposed into the sum of three components: uncertainty, reliability, and resolution. This Brier score decomposition can provide useful information to the forecast provider about how the forecasts can be improved. Rather than stratify on all values of issued probability, it is common practice to calculate the Brier score components by first partitioning the issued probabilities into a small set of bins. This note shows that for such a procedure, an additional two within-bin components are needed in addition to the three traditional components of the Brier score. The two new components can be combined with the resolution component to make a generalized resolution component that is less sensitive to choice of bin width than is the traditional resolution component. The difference between the generalized resolution term and the conventional resolution term also quantifies how forecast skill is degraded when issuing categorized probabilities to users. The ideas are illustrated using an example of multimodel ensemble seasonal forecasts of equatorial sea surface temperatures. |
Área | MET |
Arranjo | urlib.net > BDMCI > Fonds > Produção anterior à 2021 > DIDOP > Two extra components... |
Conteúdo da Pasta doc | acessar |
Conteúdo da Pasta source | não têm arquivos |
Conteúdo da Pasta agreement | não têm arquivos |
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4. Condições de acesso e uso | |
URL dos dados | http://urlib.net/ibi/8JMKD3MGP8W/343G8UL |
URL dos dados zipados | http://urlib.net/zip/8JMKD3MGP8W/343G8UL |
Idioma | en |
Arquivo Alvo | branco.pdf |
Grupo de Usuários | administrator deicy |
Visibilidade | shown |
Política de Arquivamento | denypublisher6 allowfinaldraft |
Permissão de Leitura | allow from all |
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5. Fontes relacionadas | |
Unidades Imediatamente Superiores | 8JMKD3MGPCW/43SQKNE |
Divulgação | WEBSCI; PORTALCAPES; MGA; COMPENDEX. |
Acervo Hospedeiro | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m18@80/2008/03.17.15.17 |
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6. Notas | |
Campos Vazios | alternatejournal archivist callnumber copyholder copyright creatorhistory descriptionlevel documentstage electronicmailaddress format isbn label lineage mark mirrorrepository nextedition notes orcid parameterlist parentrepositories previousedition previouslowerunit progress project readergroup resumeid rightsholder schedulinginformation secondarydate secondarymark session shorttitle sponsor subject tertiarymark tertiarytype typeofwork url versiontype |
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7. Controle da descrição | |
e-Mail (login) | marciana |
atualizar | |
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