| 1. Identity statement | |
| Reference Type | Journal Article |
| Site | mtc-m16b.sid.inpe.br |
| Holder Code | isadg {BR SPINPE} ibi 8JMKD3MGPCW/3DT298S |
| Identifier | 6qtX3pFwXQZGivnK2Y/NhACa |
| Repository | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m17@80/2006/11.27.13.36 (restricted access) |
| Last Update | 2006:11.27.13.36.48 (UTC) administrator |
| Metadata Repository | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m17@80/2006/11.27.13.36.49 |
| Metadata Last Update | 2022:03.05.04.15.30 (UTC) administrator |
| Secondary Key | INPE-14522-PRE/9553 |
| DOI | 10.1017/S1350482705002045 |
| ISSN | 1350-4827 |
| Citation Key | CoelhoStDoBaGuOl:2006:SeFoRe |
| Title | A bayesian approach for multi-model downscaling: seasonal forecasting of regional rainfall and river flows in south America  |
| Year | 2006 |
| Secondary Date | 200510 |
| Month | Mar. |
| Access Date | 2024, Apr. 28 |
| Secondary Type | PRE PI |
| Number of Files | 1 |
| Size | 272 KiB |
| 2. Context | |
| Author | 1 Coelho, Caio Augusto dos Santos 2 Stephenson, David B. 3 Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J. 4 Balmaseda, Magdalena 5 Guetter, A. 6 Oldenborgh, G. J. |
| Group | 1 DOP-INPE-MCT-BR |
| Affiliation | 1 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) 2 Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Earley Gate 3 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 4 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 5 Instituto Tecnológico SIMEPAR, Centro Politécnico da UFPR 6 Royal Dutch Meteorological Institute |
| Author e-Mail Address | 1 caio@cptec.inpe.br |
| e-Mail Address | atus@cptec.inpe.br |
| Journal | Meteorological Applications |
| Volume | 13 |
| Number | 01 |
| Pages | 73-82 |
| History (UTC) | 2007-01-08 16:41:49 :: estagiario -> administrator :: 2008-06-29 02:28:42 :: administrator -> estagiario :: 2010-05-11 16:59:32 :: estagiario -> marciana :: 2011-05-29 09:18:55 :: marciana -> administrator :: 2022-03-05 04:15:30 :: administrator -> marciana :: 2006 |
| 3. Content and structure | |
| Is the master or a copy? | is the master |
| Content Stage | completed |
| Transferable | 1 |
| Content Type | External Contribution |
| Keywords | multi-model downscaling regional rainfall river flow south America bayesian approach seasonal forecasting |
| Abstract | This study addresses three issues: spatial downscaling, calibration, and combination of seasonal predictions produced by different coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. It examines the feasibility of using a Bayesian procedure for producing combined, well-calibrated downscaled seasonal rainfall forecasts for two regions in South America and river flow forecasts for the Paran´a river in the south of Brazil and the Tocantins river in the north of Brazil. These forecasts are important for national electricity generation management and planning. A Bayesian procedure, referred to here as forecast assimilation, is used to combine and calibrate the rainfall predictions produced by three climate models. Forecast assimilation is able to improve the skill of 3-month lead November-December-January multi-model rainfall predictions over the two South American regions. Improvements are noted in forecast seasonal mean values and uncertainty estimates. River flow forecasts are less skilful than rainfall forecasts. This is partially because natural river flow is a derived quantity that is sensitive to hydrological as well as meteorological processes, and to human intervention in the form of reservoir management. |
| Area | MET |
| Arrangement | urlib.net > BDMCI > Fonds > Produção anterior à 2021 > DIDOP > A bayesian approach... |
| doc Directory Content | access |
| source Directory Content | there are no files |
| agreement Directory Content | there are no files |
| 4. Conditions of access and use | |
| Language | en |
| Target File | Coelho.Bayesian.pdf |
| User Group | administrator estagiario |
| Visibility | shown |
| Copy Holder | SID/SCD |
| Archiving Policy | denypublisher denyfinaldraft |
| Read Permission | deny from all and allow from 150.163 |
| 5. Allied materials | |
| Next Higher Units | 8JMKD3MGPCW/43SQKNE |
| URL (untrusted data) | http://journals.cambridge.org |
| Dissemination | WEBSCI; PORTALCAPES; MGA. |
| Host Collection | lcp.inpe.br/ignes/2004/02.12.18.39 cptec.inpe.br/walmeida/2003/04.25.17.12 |
| 6. Notes | |
| Empty Fields | alternatejournal archivist callnumber copyright creatorhistory descriptionlevel documentstage format isbn label lineage mark mirrorrepository nextedition notes orcid parameterlist parentrepositories previousedition previouslowerunit progress project readergroup resumeid rightsholder schedulinginformation secondarymark session shorttitle sponsor subject tertiarymark tertiarytype typeofwork versiontype |
| 7. Description control | |
| e-Mail (login) | marciana |
| update | |