| 1. Identity statement | |
| Reference Type | Journal Article |
| Site | mtc-m16b.sid.inpe.br |
| Holder Code | isadg {BR SPINPE} ibi 8JMKD3MGPCW/3DT298S |
| Identifier | 6qtX3pFwXQZGivnK2Y/NJayL |
| Repository | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m17@80/2007/01.10.13.16 (restricted access) |
| Last Update | 2007:01.10.13.16.55 (UTC) administrator |
| Metadata Repository | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m17@80/2007/01.10.13.16.56 |
| Metadata Last Update | 2021:02.10.19.21.43 (UTC) administrator |
| Secondary Key | INPE-14691-PRE/9664 |
| ISSN | 0016-7169 |
| Citation Key | Seluchi:1995:DiPrSi |
| Title | Diagnóstico y pronóstico de situaciones sinópticas conducentes a ciclogénesis sobre el este de Sudamérica  |
| Project | Estudos do tempo |
| Year | 1995 |
| Access Date | 2024, Apr. 28 |
| Secondary Type | PRE PN |
| Number of Files | 1 |
| Size | 1821 KiB |
| 2. Context | |
| Author | Seluchi, Marcelo Enrique |
| Resume Identifier | 8JMKD3MGP5W/3C9JHP2 |
| Group | DOP-INPE-MCT-BR |
| Affiliation | Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) |
| Author e-Mail Address | seluchi@cptec.inpe.br |
| e-Mail Address | atus@cptec.inpe.br |
| Journal | Geofísica Internacional |
| Volume | 34 |
| Number | 02 |
| Pages | 171-186 |
| History (UTC) | 2007-05-17 12:43:36 :: estagiario -> administrator :: 2008-06-29 02:30:21 :: administrator -> estagiario :: 2010-05-11 16:59:58 :: estagiario -> administrator :: 2021-02-10 19:21:43 :: administrator -> marciana :: 1995 |
| 3. Content and structure | |
| Is the master or a copy? | is the master |
| Content Stage | completed |
| Transferable | 1 |
| Content Type | External Contribution |
| Keywords | climatología ciclogénesis pronóstico climatology cyclogenesis prediction |
| Abstract | Una de las regiones más ciclogenéticas del Hemisferio Sur está comprendida entre los 20° S y 35°S sobre el este del continente americano y el Océano Atlántico adyacente. Las depresiones que allí se generan están usualmente asociadas a intensas precipitaciones y fuertes vientos del sudeste sobre el estuario del Río de Ia Plata, causando frecuentemente su desborde, El objetivo del presente trabajo es estudiar Ia situación sin6ptica típica coríducente a desarrollos de ciclones sobre el Este de Sudamérica y obtener métodos objetivos para su pron6stico. A partir de 54 casos, se obtuvieron los campos medios de altu- ra geopotencial en los niveles de 1000 y 500 hPa y de espesor 50011000 hPa, desde cinco días antes del evento. Los mapas medios muestran que Ia perturbación responsable puede ser detectada cinco días; antes de Ia fórmación del. ciclón. Dicha perturbaci6n se desplaza lentamente, más al norte que lo habitual, se intensifica con Ia altura y está asociada a un núcleo ffio en el mapa de espesor, ]o que indica que este tipo de ciclogénesis suele vincularse con pasajes de depresiones segregadas. En Ia troposfera baja Ia anomalía ciclónica se mueve lentamente hacia el continente, sufriendo una interrupción en el momento de traspasar Ia Cordillera, de los Andes y regeneráridose luego a sotavento sobre latitudes menores. Se utilizó el Análisis; Discriminante Multivariado con el fin. de obtener métodos objetivos de predicci6n. El método desarrollado tiene una antelaci 6n máxima de 48 lís y un. alto grado de conflabilidad. Los predictores más importantes están relacionados con Ia intensidad, ubicaci 6n y longitud. de Ia perturbaci6n en Ia troposfera media, Ia baroclinicidad, Ia ubicaci6n de Ios sistemas en superficie respecto de Ia Cordillera de Ios Andes y el índice de circulaci6n zonal. part of the American continent and the adjacent Atlantic Ocean. ABSTRACT: One of the strongest cyclogenetic regions of the Southern Hemisphere is; located betweert 20 and 35*S over the castern part of the American continent and the adjacent Atlantic Ocean. Depressions are often associated with heavy rainfall and strong winds over Rio de Ia Plata causing frequent floods. This research deals with the mean synoptic conditions associated with Eastem South America cyclogenesis and eventual objective forecasting methods. The average maps of geopotential height at 1000 and 500 hPa levels and thickness at 50011000 hPa were calculated up to 5 days in advance, using 54 cases. The perturbations in the middle troposphere causing these cyclones may be detected 5 days before onset: of the low pressure system. The disturbances are cold; they injçnsify with height and move slowly at latitudes further north than usual. This suggests that cyclogenesis may be associated with cut-off lows. Surface disturbances move slowly towards the continent; they are interrupted as they cross the Andes and they regenerate at lower latitudes east of the Andes. Multivariate discriminant analysis was used to develop objective forecasting methods. The proposed forecast has a range of up 48 hours with high reliability. The major predictors are related to the intensity, length and location of the disturbances in. the middle troposphere, the baroclinicity, the location of surface systems as referred to the Andes, and the zonal circulation index. |
| Area | MET |
| Arrangement | urlib.net > BDMCI > Fonds > Produção anterior à 2021 > DIDOP > Diagnóstico y pronóstico... |
| doc Directory Content | access |
| source Directory Content | there are no files |
| agreement Directory Content | there are no files |
| 4. Conditions of access and use | |
| Language | es |
| Target File | Seluchi.Diagnostico.pdf |
| User Group | administrator estagiario |
| Visibility | shown |
| Copy Holder | SID/SCD |
| Archiving Policy | denypublisher denyfinaldraft |
| Read Permission | deny from all and allow from 150.163 |
| 5. Allied materials | |
| Next Higher Units | 8JMKD3MGPCW/43SQKNE |
| Dissemination | WEBSCI; PORTALCAPES; AGU. |
| Host Collection | lcp.inpe.br/ignes/2004/02.12.18.39 cptec.inpe.br/walmeida/2003/04.25.17.12 |
| 6. Notes | |
| Empty Fields | alternatejournal archivist callnumber copyright creatorhistory descriptionlevel documentstage doi format isbn label lineage mark mirrorrepository month nextedition notes orcid parameterlist parentrepositories previousedition previouslowerunit progress readergroup rightsholder schedulinginformation secondarydate secondarymark session shorttitle sponsor subject tertiarymark tertiarytype typeofwork url versiontype |
| 7. Description control | |
| e-Mail (login) | marciana |
| update | |