| 1. Identity statement | |
| Reference Type | Journal Article |
| Site | mtc-m16c.sid.inpe.br |
| Holder Code | isadg {BR SPINPE} ibi 8JMKD3MGPCW/3DT298S |
| Identifier | 6qtX3pFwXQZGivnK3Y/UU5Li |
| Repository | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m18@80/2008/07.28.13.53 (restricted access) |
| Last Update | 2008:07.28.13.53.47 (UTC) administrator |
| Metadata Repository | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m18@80/2008/07.28.13.53.48 |
| Metadata Last Update | 2021:01.02.22.16.19 (UTC) administrator |
| Secondary Key | INPE--PRE/ |
| DOI | 10.1002/met.50 |
| ISSN | 1350-4827 |
| Citation Key | Doblas-ReyesCoelStep:2008:HoMuDo |
| Title | How much does simplification of probability forecasts reduce forecast quality?  |
| Year | 2008 |
| Secondary Date | 200803 |
| Month | Mar. |
| Access Date | 2024, Apr. 27 |
| Secondary Type | PRE PI |
| Number of Files | 1 |
| Size | 127 KiB |
| 2. Context | |
| Author | 1 Doblas-Reyes, F. J 2 Coelho, Caio Augusto dos Santos 3 Stephenson, D. B |
| Group | 1 2 DOP-CPT-INPE-MCT-BR |
| Affiliation | 1 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Park, Reading RG2 9AX, UK 2 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE/CPTEC) 3 School of Engineering, Compunting, and Mathematics, University of Exeter, Harrison Building, North Park Road, Exeter EX4 4QF, UK |
| e-Mail Address | deicy@cptec.inpe.br |
| Journal | Meteorological Applications |
| Volume | 15 |
| Number | 1 |
| Pages | 155-162 |
| History (UTC) | 2008-08-05 13:51:05 :: deicy -> administrator :: 2010-05-11 01:23:30 :: administrator -> deicy :: 2011-04-28 11:24:16 :: deicy -> administrator :: 2021-01-02 22:16:19 :: administrator -> marciana :: 2008 |
| 3. Content and structure | |
| Is the master or a copy? | is the master |
| Content Stage | completed |
| Transferable | 1 |
| Content Type | External Contribution |
| Keywords | forecast quality probability forecasts ensemble forecasting |
| Abstract | Probability forecasts from an ensemble are often discretized into a small set of categories before being distributed to the users. This study investigates how such simplification can afect the forecast quality of probabilistic predictions as measured by the Brier score (BS). An example from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational seasonal ensemble forecast system is used to show tha the simplification of the forecast probabilities issued from the ensemble. This is more obvious for a small number of probability categories and is mainly due to a decrease in forecast resolution of up to 36%. The impact of the simplification as a function of the ensemble size is also discussed. The results suggest that forecast quality should be made available for the set of probabilities that the forecast user has access to as well as for the complete set of probabilitites issued by the ensemble forecasting system. |
| Area | MET |
| Arrangement | urlib.net > BDMCI > Fonds > Produção anterior à 2021 > DIDOP > How much does... |
| doc Directory Content | access |
| source Directory Content | there are no files |
| agreement Directory Content | there are no files |
| 4. Conditions of access and use | |
| Language | en |
| Target File | met-apps-verification-2008.pdf |
| User Group | administrator deicy |
| Visibility | shown |
| Archiving Policy | denypublisher denyfinaldraft |
| Read Permission | deny from all and allow from 150.163 |
| 5. Allied materials | |
| Next Higher Units | 8JMKD3MGPCW/43SQKNE |
| Dissemination | WEBSCI; PORTALCAPES; MGA. |
| Host Collection | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m18@80/2008/03.17.15.17 |
| 6. Notes | |
| Empty Fields | alternatejournal archivist callnumber copyholder copyright creatorhistory descriptionlevel documentstage electronicmailaddress format isbn label lineage mark mirrorrepository nextedition notes orcid parameterlist parentrepositories previousedition previouslowerunit progress project readergroup resumeid rightsholder schedulinginformation secondarymark session shorttitle sponsor subject tertiarymark tertiarytype typeofwork url versiontype |
| 7. Description control | |
| e-Mail (login) | marciana |
| update | |