| 1. Identity statement | |
| Reference Type | Conference Abstract (Conference Proceedings) |
| Site | mtc-m16c.sid.inpe.br |
| Holder Code | isadg {BR SPINPE} ibi 8JMKD3MGPCW/3DT298S |
| Repository | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m18@80/2008/08.04.18.25 (restricted access) |
| Last Update | 2008:08.04.18.25.33 (UTC) administrator |
| Metadata Repository | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m18@80/2008/08.04.18.25.34 |
| Metadata Last Update | 2021:02.10.19.21.50 (UTC) administrator |
| Secondary Key | INPE--PRE/ |
| Citation Key | VanOldenborghCoel:2006:PrSeFo |
| Title | Probabilistic seasonal forecast verification with the climate explorer  |
| Format | On-line |
| Year | 2006 |
| Secondary Date | 20060402 |
| Access Date | 2024, Apr. 28 |
| Secondary Type | PRE CI |
| Number of Files | 1 |
| Size | 424 KiB |
| 2. Context | |
| Author | 1 Van Oldenborgh, G. J. 2 Coelho, Caio Augusto dos Santos |
| Group | 1 2 DOP-INPE-MCT-BR |
| Affiliation | 1 2 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE/CPTEC) |
| e-Mail Address | deicy@cptec.inpe.br |
| Conference Name | European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2006. |
| Conference Location | Vienna, Austria |
| Date | 2-7 Apr. |
| Book Title | Abstracts |
| Tertiary Type | Poster |
| Organization | EGU |
| History (UTC) | 2008-08-04 18:35:38 :: deicy -> administrator :: 2021-02-10 19:21:50 :: administrator -> marciana :: 2006 |
| 3. Content and structure | |
| Is the master or a copy? | is the master |
| Content Stage | completed |
| Transferable | 1 |
| Content Type | External Contribution |
| Keywords | * |
| Abstract | Seasonal climate forecasts are made using multi-model ensembles. Contrary to climate change projections, the skill of the forecasts can be verified against observations using old forecasts and hindcasts. In practice the small number of forecasts (15-45) is a severe limitation, as the skill depends strongly on the region and season. We present a web-based system to produce charts and maps of the skill of operational seasonal forecast systems using a variety of measures. It is part of the KNMI Climate Explorer (climexp.knmi.nl), and presently contains data from the ECMWF S2 and NCEP CFS operational forecast systems, as well as the Demeter research experiment. The verification measures have been developed in the RCLIM project, and include deterministic measures such as the ensemble mean correlation, RMSE and MAE, as well as probabilistic measures such as the Brier Score, its decomposition into resolution, reliability and uncertainty, and the ROC curve. These are available both for time series (area-averaged or all grid points in a region) and as spatial maps. More measures, and estimates of the uncertainties of the skill scores, are planned. The verification system allows seasonal forecasters and climate researchers to quickly explore the predictability of the short-term climate with current state-of-the-art models. |
| Area | MET |
| Arrangement | urlib.net > BDMCI > Fonds > Produção anterior à 2021 > DIDOP > Probabilistic seasonal forecast... |
| doc Directory Content | access |
| source Directory Content | there are no files |
| agreement Directory Content | there are no files |
| 4. Conditions of access and use | |
| Language | en |
| Target File | egu06_climexp.pdf |
| User Group | administrator deicy administrator |
| Visibility | shown |
| Read Permission | deny from all and allow from 150.163 |
| 5. Allied materials | |
| Next Higher Units | 8JMKD3MGPCW/43SQKNE |
| Host Collection | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m18@80/2008/03.17.15.17 |
| 6. Notes | |
| Empty Fields | archivingpolicy archivist callnumber copyholder copyright creatorhistory descriptionlevel dissemination documentstage doi edition editor electronicmailaddress identifier isbn issn label lineage mark mirrorrepository nextedition notes numberofvolumes orcid pages parameterlist parentrepositories previousedition previouslowerunit progress project publisher publisheraddress readergroup resumeid rightsholder schedulinginformation secondarymark serieseditor session shorttitle sponsor subject tertiarymark type url versiontype volume |
| 7. Description control | |
| e-Mail (login) | marciana |
| update | |