| 1. Identity statement | |
| Reference Type | Conference Paper (Conference Proceedings) |
| Site | mtc-m16c.sid.inpe.br |
| Holder Code | isadg {BR SPINPE} ibi 8JMKD3MGPCW/3DT298S |
| Repository | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m18@80/2008/09.26.12.23 (restricted access) |
| Last Update | 2008:09.26.12.23.29 (UTC) administrator |
| Metadata Repository | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m18@80/2008/09.26.12.23.31 |
| Metadata Last Update | 2021:01.02.22.18.14 (UTC) administrator |
| Secondary Key | INPE-15494-PRE/10222 |
| Citation Key | BustamanteChan:2008:AvPrEn |
| Title | Avaliação da previsão por ensemble de física do modelo ETA para um caso de chuva intensa  |
| Format | CD-ROM |
| Year | 2008 |
| Secondary Date | 20080824 |
| Access Date | 2024, Apr. 28 |
| Secondary Type | PRE CN |
| Number of Files | 1 |
| Size | 1300 KiB |
| 2. Context | |
| Author | 1 Bustamante, Josiane F. 2 Chan, Chou Sin |
| Resume Identifier | 1 2 8JMKD3MGP5W/3C9JGRQ |
| Group | 1 DOP-CPT-INPE-MCT-BR 2 DMD-CPT-INPE-MCT-BR |
| Affiliation | 1 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE/CPTEC) 2 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE/CPTEC) |
| Conference Name | Congresso Brasileiro de Meteorologia, 15. |
| Conference Location | São Paulo |
| Date | 24-29 ago |
| Book Title | Anais |
| Tertiary Type | Artigo |
| Organization | SBMET |
| History (UTC) | 2008-12-04 17:24:45 :: deicy -> administrator :: 2021-01-02 22:18:14 :: administrator -> marciana :: 2008 |
| 3. Content and structure | |
| Is the master or a copy? | is the master |
| Content Stage | completed |
| Transferable | 1 |
| Content Type | External Contribution |
| Keywords | previsão por ensemble modelo Eta Ensemble forecast Eta Model |
| Abstract | O principal objetivo deste trabalho é avaliar as previsões fornecidas por diferentes membros com relação ao ensemble médio de uma previsão por ensemble de curto prazo (Short-Range Ensemble Prediction, SREP) que explora as incertezas dos modelos (ensemble de física). Este SREP utiliza o modelo Eta com resolução de 10 km na horizontal e 38 níveis na vertical. As condições iniciais e de contorno são respectivamente fornecidas pelo National Centre for Environmental Prediction e pelas previsões do modelo global do CPTEC. O SREP foi testado para um caso de ZCAS onde o total de chuva acumulada atingiu mais de 300 mm. Foram calculados o erro médio e o RMSE das previsões de cada um dos membros e do ensemble médio e comparado aos erros das previsões do membro controle. As previsões de precipitação do ensemble médio indicam resultados mais próximos aos observados, principalmente quando comparado à previsão controle. ABSTRACT: The main purpose of this work is to evaluate the members of a Short-Range Ensemble Prediction (SREP) using different physical parametrizations and to compare against the ensemble mean. This SREP system is based on the Eta Model configured at 10 km horizontal resolution and 38 vertical levels. Initial conditions and lateral boundary conditions are, respectively, analyses from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and forecasts from CPTEC global model. A South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) episode that accumulated over 300 mm in 5 days was chosen for tests and evaluation. Mean error and RMSE were calculated for every ensemble member and compared against ensemble mean and control forecast. Accumulated precipitation predicted by ensemble mean show better results than control forecast. |
| Area | MET |
| Arrangement 1 | urlib.net > BDMCI > Fonds > Produção anterior à 2021 > DIDMD > Avaliação da previsão... |
| Arrangement 2 | urlib.net > BDMCI > Fonds > Produção anterior à 2021 > DIDOP > Avaliação da previsão... |
| doc Directory Content | access |
| source Directory Content | there are no files |
| agreement Directory Content | there are no files |
| 4. Conditions of access and use | |
| Language | pt |
| Target File | bustamante_previsão.pdf |
| User Group | administrator deicy |
| Visibility | shown |
| Copy Holder | SID/SCD |
| Read Permission | deny from all and allow from 150.163 |
| 5. Allied materials | |
| Next Higher Units | 8JMKD3MGPCW/43SKC35 8JMKD3MGPCW/43SQKNE |
| Host Collection | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m18@80/2008/03.17.15.17 |
| 6. Notes | |
| Empty Fields | archivingpolicy archivist callnumber copyright creatorhistory descriptionlevel dissemination documentstage doi e-mailaddress edition editor electronicmailaddress identifier isbn issn label lineage mark mirrorrepository nextedition notes numberofvolumes orcid pages parameterlist parentrepositories previousedition previouslowerunit progress project publisher publisheraddress readergroup rightsholder schedulinginformation secondarymark serieseditor session shorttitle sponsor subject tertiarymark type url versiontype volume |
| 7. Description control | |
| e-Mail (login) | marciana |
| update | |