| 1. Identity statement | |
| Reference Type | Conference Paper (Conference Proceedings) |
| Site | mtc-m16c.sid.inpe.br |
| Holder Code | isadg {BR SPINPE} ibi 8JMKD3MGPCW/3DT298S |
| Identifier | 8JMKD3MGP8W/35NLKN5 |
| Repository | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m18@80/2009/07.27.12.41 (restricted access) |
| Last Update | 2009:07.27.12.41.01 (UTC) administrator |
| Metadata Repository | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m18@80/2009/07.27.12.41.03 |
| Metadata Last Update | 2021:01.02.22.18.20 (UTC) administrator |
| Secondary Key | INPE--PRE/ |
| Citation Key | LoweBaStGrCoCaBa:2009:ClDePr |
| Title | Climate-based dengue predictions for Brazil  |
| Format | On-line |
| Year | 2009 |
| Access Date | 2024, Apr. 28 |
| Secondary Type | PRE CI |
| Number of Files | 1 |
| Size | 606 KiB |
| 2. Context | |
| Author | 1 Lowe, Rachel 2 Bailey, Trevor C. 3 Stephenson, David B. 4 Graham, Richard 5 Coelho, Caio Augusto dos Santos 6 Carvalho, Marilia Sá 7 Barcellos, Christovam |
| Group | 1 2 3 4 5 DOP-CPT-INPE-MCT-BR |
| Affiliation | 1 2 3 4 5 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) 6 Fundação Oswaldo Cruz |
| e-Mail Address | deicy.farabello@cptec.inpe.br |
| Conference Name | International Conference: GeoInformatics for Environmental Surveillance, (Fourth StatGIS '2009). |
| Conference Location | Milos island, Greece |
| Date | 17-19 jun. |
| Tertiary Type | Sessão Técnica Oral |
| History (UTC) | 2009-07-27 12:52:51 :: deicy.farabello -> administrator :: 2021-01-02 22:18:20 :: administrator -> simone :: 2009 |
| 3. Content and structure | |
| Is the master or a copy? | is the master |
| Content Stage | completed |
| Transferable | 1 |
| Content Type | External Contribution |
| Keywords | dengue transmission climatic forecasts Amazon region |
| Abstract | The purpose of this study is to assess the potential for using seasonal climate forecasts in an early warning system (EWS) for dengue fever incidence in Brazil. Data at heterogeneous spatial scales were combined in a negative binomial model using dengue fever data at the microregion level for the period January 2001- April 2008, gridded observed climate data with time lags relevant to dengue transmission and other socio-economic and environmental covariates. The same model was then refitted replacing observed climate with seasonal climate forecasts of the same variables issued 5 months previous to the dengue month of interest. Predictions from both models were tested by using the first 7 years as a training dataset to predict the first 4 months of 2008 when a dengue epidemic occurred in Brazil. Both models were able to capture high dengue incidence along the densely populated eastern coast of Brazil and low incidence in the South. The models did not perform so well in the Amazon region. We conclude that seasonal climate forecasts could have potential value in the context of a dengue EWS to predict the climatic conditions that may influence dengue incidence up to 5 months ahead of an epidemic in Brazil. |
| Area | MET |
| Arrangement | urlib.net > BDMCI > Fonds > Produção anterior à 2021 > DIDOP > Climate-based dengue predictions... |
| doc Directory Content | access |
| source Directory Content | there are no files |
| agreement Directory Content | there are no files |
| 4. Conditions of access and use | |
| Language | en |
| Target File | STATGIS09-Rachel-Lowe-finalversion-140509.pdf |
| User Group | administrator deicy.farabello administrator |
| Visibility | shown |
| Read Permission | deny from all and allow from 150.163 |
| 5. Allied materials | |
| Mirror Repository | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m18@80/2008/03.17.15.17.24 |
| Next Higher Units | 8JMKD3MGPCW/43SQKNE |
| Host Collection | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m18@80/2008/03.17.15.17 |
| 6. Notes | |
| Empty Fields | archivingpolicy archivist booktitle callnumber copyholder copyright creatorhistory descriptionlevel dissemination documentstage doi edition editor electronicmailaddress isbn issn label lineage mark nextedition notes numberofvolumes orcid organization pages parameterlist parentrepositories previousedition previouslowerunit progress project publisher publisheraddress readergroup resumeid rightsholder schedulinginformation secondarydate secondarymark serieseditor session shorttitle sponsor subject tertiarymark type url versiontype volume |
| 7. Description control | |
| e-Mail (login) | simone |
| update | |