| 1. Identity statement | |
| Reference Type | Journal Article |
| Site | mtc-m16d.sid.inpe.br |
| Holder Code | isadg {BR SPINPE} ibi 8JMKD3MGPCW/3DT298S |
| Identifier | 8JMKD3MGP7W/37UBSR8 |
| Repository | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m19@80/2010/07.29.14.16 (restricted access) |
| Last Update | 2010:08.12.15.37.03 (UTC) marciana |
| Metadata Repository | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m19@80/2010/07.29.14.16.38 |
| Metadata Last Update | 2021:02.12.13.48.17 (UTC) administrator |
| Secondary Key | INPE--PRE/ |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.techfore.2009.07.007 |
| ISSN | 0040-1625 |
| Citation Key | MirandaLima:2010:ApHiTi |
| Title | A new methodology for the logistic analysis of evolutionary S-shaped processes: Application to historical time series and forecasting  |
| Year | 2010 |
| Month | FEB |
| Access Date | 2024, Apr. 28 |
| Secondary Type | PRE PI |
| Number of Files | 1 |
| Size | 691 KiB |
| 2. Context | |
| Author | 1 Miranda, Luiz C. M 2 Lima, Carlos A. S |
| Group | 1 DGE-CEA-INPE-MCT-BR |
| Affiliation | 1 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) 2 Univ Estadual Campinas, Campinas, SP Brazil |
| Journal | Technological Forecasting and Social Change |
| Volume | 77 |
| Number | 2 |
| Pages | 175-192 |
| Secondary Mark | B2_ENGENHARIAS_II A1_INTERDISCIPLINAR |
| History (UTC) | 2010-08-12 15:37:03 :: marciana -> administrator :: 2010 2011-06-08 00:04:30 :: administrator -> marciana :: 2010 2011-09-14 11:43:42 :: marciana -> administrator :: 2010 2012-10-10 05:17:27 :: administrator -> marciana :: 2010 2013-03-15 16:37:19 :: marciana -> administrator :: 2010 2021-02-12 13:48:17 :: administrator -> marciana :: 2010 |
| 3. Content and structure | |
| Is the master or a copy? | is the master |
| Content Stage | completed |
| Transferable | 1 |
| Content Type | External Contribution |
| Version Type | publisher |
| Keywords | multi-logistic processes modeling historical time series structured residuals harmonic oscillations logistic forecasting hybrid corn technological-change long-wave growth population economics cycles model |
| Abstract | A new multi-logistic methodology to analyze long range time series of evolutionary S-shaped processes is presented. It conceptually innovates over the traditional logistic approach. The ansatz includes computing the residuals to an optimized multi-logistic trend curve least squares fitted to the time-series data. The elements of the residuals series are checked for autocorrelations and once detected the residuals series is further analyzed to search for eventual presence of underlying periodic structures using a truncated Fourier sine series. The method foundations ensures both a universal applicability and a capacity to disclose the existence of active clocks that can be possibly traced to the driving motors of the evolutionary character of the time series, due to the responsiveness of corresponding process to the development of economic cycles. On associating these two views, it is found that the methodology has a strong potential to improve the quality of short-term forecasts. These findings have been put to test through applications of the methodology to studying the time evolution of two commodities of strong economic and social importance (corn and steel) and good results were consistently obtained for both the analytical and forecasting aspects. |
| Area | CST |
| Arrangement | urlib.net > BDMCI > Fonds > Produção anterior à 2021 > DIDGE > A new methodology... |
| doc Directory Content | access |
| source Directory Content | there are no files |
| agreement Directory Content | there are no files |
| 4. Conditions of access and use | |
| Language | en |
| Target File | new.pdf |
| User Group | administrator marciana |
| Visibility | shown |
| Archiving Policy | denypublisher denyfinaldraft36 |
| Read Permission | deny from all and allow from 150.163 |
| Update Permission | not transferred |
| 5. Allied materials | |
| Mirror Repository | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m19@80/2009/08.21.17.02.53 |
| Next Higher Units | 8JMKD3MGPCW/3EU29DP |
| Dissemination | WEBSCI |
| Host Collection | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m19@80/2009/08.21.17.02 |
| 6. Notes | |
| Empty Fields | alternatejournal archivist callnumber copyholder copyright creatorhistory descriptionlevel e-mailaddress electronicmailaddress format isbn label lineage mark nextedition notes orcid parameterlist parentrepositories previousedition previouslowerunit progress project readergroup resumeid rightsholder schedulinginformation secondarydate session shorttitle sponsor subject tertiarymark tertiarytype typeofwork url |
| 7. Description control | |
| e-Mail (login) | marciana |
| update | |