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1. Identity statement
Reference TypeJournal Article
Sitemtc-m16d.sid.inpe.br
Holder Codeisadg {BR SPINPE} ibi 8JMKD3MGPCW/3DT298S
Identifier8JMKD3MGP7W/3AUTQJS
Repositorysid.inpe.br/mtc-m19/2011/12.13.10.43   (restricted access)
Last Update2011:12.13.10.47.12 (UTC) marciana
Metadata Repositorysid.inpe.br/mtc-m19/2011/12.13.10.43.29
Metadata Last Update2018:06.05.04.25.07 (UTC) administrator
Secondary KeyINPE--PRE/
DOI10.1016/j.techfore.2011.04.001
ISSN0040-1625
Citation KeyMirandaLima:2011:FoChWo
TitleOn the forecasting of the challenging world future scenarios
Year2011
MonthOct.
Access Date2024, May 01
Secondary TypePRE PI
Number of Files1
Size1507 KiB
2. Context
Author1 Miranda, Luiz C. M.
2 Lima, C. A. S.
Group1 LAS-CTE-INPE-MCT-BR
Affiliation1 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)
2 Univ Estadual Campinas, Campinas, SP, Brazil
JournalTechnological Forecasting and Social Change
Volume78
Number8
Pages1445-1470
Secondary MarkB2_ENGENHARIAS_II A1_INTERDISCIPLINAR
History (UTC)2011-12-13 10:45:13 :: marciana -> administrator :: 2011
2011-12-13 10:46:39 :: administrator -> marciana :: 2011
2011-12-13 10:47:38 :: marciana -> administrator :: 2011
2013-03-11 12:54:29 :: administrator -> marciana :: 2011
2013-03-15 16:37:58 :: marciana -> administrator :: 2011
2018-06-05 04:25:07 :: administrator -> marciana :: 2011
3. Content and structure
Is the master or a copy?is the master
Content Stagecompleted
Transferable1
Content TypeExternal Contribution
Version Typepublisher
KeywordsEvolutionary growth processes
Logistic model forecasting
Allee modified logistic model
World population forecasting
World GDP evolution
Food supply evolution
Primary energy forecasting
TECHNOLOGICAL-CHANGE
POPULATION
GROWTH
SUBSTITUTION
DYNAMICS
AbstractLogistic and power law methodologies for both retrospective and prospective analyses of extended time series describing evolutionary growth processes, in environments with finite resources, are confronted. While power laws may eventually apply only to the early stages of said growth process, the Allee logistic model seems applicable over the entire span of a long range process. On applying the Allee logistic model to both the world population and the world gross domestic product time series, from 1 to 2008 AD, a projection was obtained that along the next few decades the world should experience a new economic boom phase with the world GDP peaking around the year 2020 and proceeding from then on towards a saturation value of about 142 trillion international dollars, while the world population should reach 8.9 billion people by 2050. These results were then used to forecast the behavior of the supply and consumption of energy and food, two of the main commodities that drive the world system. Our findings suggest that unless the currently prevailing focus on economic growth is changed into that of sustainable prosperity, human society may run into a period of serious economical and social struggles with unpredictable political consequences. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserve.
AreaFISMAT
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Languageen
User Groupadministrator
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Visibilityshown
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Read Permissiondeny from all and allow from 150.163
Update Permissionnot transferred
5. Allied materials
Mirror Repositorysid.inpe.br/mtc-m19@80/2009/08.21.17.02.53
Next Higher Units8JMKD3MGPCW/3ESR3H2
DisseminationWEBSCI
Host Collectionsid.inpe.br/mtc-m19@80/2009/08.21.17.02
6. Notes
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